无信号路段人行横道人车冲突概率估计

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2020.01.03

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (01): 15-22.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2020.01.03

• 交通+大数据人工智能 • 上一篇下一篇

无信号路段人行横道人车冲突概率估计

马莹莹，温沉，陆思园

(华南理工大学土木与交通学院，广东广州 510640)

收稿日期:2018-05-03 修回日期:2019-03-22 出版日期:2020-01-12 发布日期:2020-01-12
作者简介:马莹莹(1983—)，女，吉林省吉林市人，副教授，博士，主要研究方向为城市交通系统分析、交通设计、智能交通管理与控制。E-mail:mayingying@scut.edu.cn。通信作者：温沉(1993—)，女，广东东莞人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为城市交通系统分析、交通设计。E-mail：627121539@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(51308227)；广东省教育厅特色创新类项目(2017KTSCX005)；广东省自然科学基金项目(2018A030313250)

Pedestrian-Vehicle Conflict Probability Estimation at Uncontrolled Crosswalks

MA Yingying, WEN Chen, LU Siyuan

(School of Civil Engineering & Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510640, China)

Received:2018-05-03 Revised:2019-03-22 Online:2020-01-12 Published:2020-01-12

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了估计设计阶段道路行人过街的冲突概率，为行人过街安全评估提供依据，以无信号路段人行横道为研究对象，通过估计机动车与行人出现在人行横道上各位置的概率，建立了一个基于行人和机动车到达流量及运行特征的人车冲突概率估计模型；应用该模型分析了人行横道各断面冲突概率的变化特征。结果表明：行人-机动车冲突概率随行人和机动车到达流量的增大而增大；行人与机动车的冲突概率在一个车道范围内的分布与车辆的横向偏移特征有关；所提出的冲突概率估计模型与实际情况相符。

关键词: 交通工程, 城市道路, 无信号路段人行横道, 行人过街概率, 冲突概率

Abstract: In order to estimate the pedestrian-vehicle conflict probability during the design stage and provide a basis for safety assessment of pedestrian crossings, taking uncontrolled crosswalk as the study objective, a pedestrian-vehicle conflict probability estimation model based on the arrival volume and operation characteristics of pedestrians and vehicles was developed by estimating the probability of vehicles and pedestrians appearing at each section of the variation crosswalk. Then the proposed model was applied to analyze the variation characteristics of the conflict probability of each section of the crosswalk. The results show that: the pedestrian-vehicle conflict probability increases with the increase of pedestrian and vehicle arrival volume; the distribution of pedestrian-vehicle conflict probability within a lane is related to the lateral migration of vehicles; the proposed conflict probability estimation model is consistent with the actual situation.

Key words: traffic engineering, urban road, uncontrolled crosswalk, pedestrian crossing probability, conflict probability

中图分类号:

U491.2

马莹莹，温沉，陆思园. 无信号路段人行横道人车冲突概率估计[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2020, 39(01): 15-22.

MA Yingying, WEN Chen, LU Siyuan. Pedestrian-Vehicle Conflict Probability Estimation at Uncontrolled Crosswalks[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2020, 39(01): 15-22.

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无信号路段人行横道人车冲突概率估计

Pedestrian-Vehicle Conflict Probability Estimation at Uncontrolled Crosswalks

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