关键词: 交通运输工程, 吞吐量, 中长期预测, 逻辑斯蒂模型, 生成系数法

Abstract: It is of great significance to predict the port container throughput correctly for port planning and design as well as the development of national economics and science. In order to reduce the error and improve the accuracy of prediction, a multi-factor dynamic generation coefficient method combined with logistic growth model was established, which fully utilized the advantages of the model in dealing with the behavior of complex systems. The prediction studies of port container throughput from 2005 to 2018 were carried out according to the historical data of Tianjin Port, Shanghai Port and Qingdao Port. The research results show that: the proposed logistic growth model can improve the medium and long-term prediction accuracy, and the prediction results are ideal. The container throughput of Tianjin Port in next decade is predicted again by using the modified method, which provides a certain reference value for regional port planning and layout. In addition, the application scope of logistic growth model is not only limited to container port prediction, but also has high utilization space for the prediction of population size, environmental bearing capacity, industrial growth and other aspects of urban total plan related to GDP.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, throughput, middle/long term prediction, logistic model, generation coefficient method