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重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 42-46.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2021.12.07

• 交通+大数据人工智能 • 上一篇    

高速公路改扩建施工期车辆强制变道持续时间研究

程金生1，张彦宁2，孟凌霄1，张立明3   

  1. (1. 中建山东投资有限公司，山东 济南 250101； 2. 同济大学 道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海 201804； 3. 中建筑港集团有限公司，山东 青岛 266031)
  • 收稿日期:2020-05-26 修回日期:2020-07-11 发布日期:2021-12-27
  • 作者简介:程金生(1977—)，男，山东潍坊人，高级工程师，主要从事交通工程方面的研究。E-mail：cjs_213@163.com 通信作者：张彦宁(1992—)，男，湖南永州人，博士研究生，主要从事交通安全方面的研究。E-mail：1433932_zyn@tongji.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国建筑股份有限公司科技研发项目（CSCEC-2017-Z-20）

Vehicle Mandatory Lane-Changing Duration during Highway Reconstruction and Expansion Period

CHEN Jinsheng1, ZHANG Yanning2, MENG Lingxiao1, ZHANG Liming3   

  1. (1. China State Construction Shandong Investment Corporation, Jinan 250101, Shandong, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; 3. China State Construction Port Engineering Group Corporation, Qingdao 266031, Shandong, China)
  • Received:2020-05-26 Revised:2020-07-11 Published:2021-12-27

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摘要： 高速公路改扩建施工期间采用封闭部分行车道、边施工边运营的措施将导致车辆在进入施工路段前发生强制变道，易造成追尾、侧向碰撞等交通事故。为分析车辆进入施工路段前的强制变道行为，设计了驾驶模拟实验并采集了变道特征点的时间、空间数据。针对数据特点，提出Log-rank统计检验和Cox风险比例模型的生存分析方法，并对强制变道持续时间进行了分析。结果表明：当施工路段位于右转圆曲线时，驾驶员强制变道行为发生在更靠近施工路段位置，3种线形条件下驾驶员均在进入上游过渡段后才完成变道行为。Log-rank检验结果表明：不同施工路段线形条件下的车辆强制变道持续时间显著不同，同时生存曲线估计提供了不同情况下强制变道行为持续时间的75%分位数。Cox模型结果表明：施工路段位于右转圆曲线时车辆强制变道持续时间更短，当施工路段位于右转圆曲线时强制变道行为结束的瞬时概率相比直线路段高75.49%。

关键词: 交通工程；高速公路改扩建；强制变道；变道持续时间；生存分析；驾驶模拟

Abstract: During the highway reconstruction and expansion period, the measures of closing part of traffic lanes and operating-while-construction would cause mandatory lane change before entering the construction section, which was easy to cause traffic accidents such as rear end collision and lateral collision. In order to analyze the mandatory lane change behavior of vehicles before entering the construction section, a driving simulation experiment was designed and the time and space data of lane change feature points were collected. According to the characteristics of the data, a survival analysis method based on Log-rank statistical test and Cox risk ratio model was proposed, and the mandatory lane-changing duration was analyzed. The results show that when the construction section is located in the right turn circular curve, the drivers mandatory lane change behavior occurs closer to construction section. Under the three road alignment conditions, the driver completes the lane change behavior only after entering the upstream transition section. Log-rank test results show that the duration of mandatory lane-changing behavior under the alignment conditions of different construction sections is significantly different, and the survival curve estimation results provide 75% quantiles of the duration of mandatory lane-changing behavior under different conditions. Cox model results show that the lane-changing duration is shorter when the construction section is located in the right turn circular curve. When the construction section is located in the right turn circular curve, the instantaneous probability of the end of mandatory lane change is 75.49% higher than that of straight-line section.

Key words: traffic engineering; highway reconstruction and expansion; mandatory lane-changing; lane-changing duration; survival analysis; driving simulation

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