基于N-K模型的水上交通事故触发过程及风险因素耦合研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2022.03.04

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (03): 25-30.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2022.03.04

• 交通+大数据人工智能 • 上一篇下一篇

基于N-K模型的水上交通事故触发过程及风险因素耦合研究

马建文1,2,3，王波1,3，黄子硕2

(1. 山东交通学院航运学院，山东威海 264200； 2. 上海海事大学商船学院，上海 201200； 3. 山东交通学院航运安全与管理大数据发展创新实验室，山东威海 264200)

收稿日期:2020-09-12 修回日期:2020-12-29 发布日期:2022-03-24
作者简介:马建文（1987—），男，山东滕州人，副教授，博士研究生，主要从事航运大数据应用方面的研究。E-mail：518mjw@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（51909156）；山东省自然科学基金项目（ZR2021QG022）；山东省交通运输科技计划项目（2018B70）

Triggering Process and Risk Factor Coupling of Marine Traffic Accident Based on N-K Model

MA Jianwen1,2,3， WANG Bo1,3, HUANG Zishuo2

(1.Navigation College, Shandong Jiaotong University, Weihai 264200, Shandong, China; 2. Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201200, China; 3. Big Data Development Innovation Laboratory for Shipping Safety and Management, Shandong Jiaotong University, Weihai 264200, Shandong, China)

Received:2020-09-12 Revised:2020-12-29 Published:2022-03-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为明晰水上交通事故风险内在规律和多因素耦合关系，借鉴触发器原理对水上交通事故触发过程进行了分析；运用N-K模型定量研究水上交通系统内部人、船舶、环境及管理4个风险因素耦合关系，并对搜集的2012年1月—2019年8月水上交通事故数据进行实例计算。结果表明：水上交通事故与耦合风险因素数量成正相关关系，3个因素耦合时人、环境、管理的耦合风险值最大，双因素耦合时人与管理的耦合风险值最大；应着重加强对水上交通系统中管理和人的因素控制，这对提高水上交通事故风险预控水平非常重要。

关键词: 交通运输工程；水上交通；触发过程；风险耦合；N-K模型

Abstract: In order to clarify the inherent law of marine traffic accident risk and the coupling relationship of multiple factors, the triggering process of marine traffic accident was analyzed based on the principle of trigger. The N-K model was used to quantitatively study the coupling relationship among the four risk factors of human, ship, environment and management in the marine traffic system, and the collected data of water traffic accidents from January 2012 to August 2019 were calculated. The results show that the marine traffic accident is positively correlated with the number of coupling risk factors. The coupling risk value of human, environment and management is the largest when the three factors are coupled, and the coupling risk value of human and management is the largest when the two factors are coupled. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the control of management and human factors in the marine traffic system, which is important to improve the level of risk pre-control of marine traffic accident.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering; marine traffic; triggering process; risk coupling; N-K model

中图分类号:

U698.6

马建文1,2,3，王波1,3，黄子硕2. 基于N-K模型的水上交通事故触发过程及风险因素耦合研究[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 41(03): 25-30.

MA Jianwen1,2,3， WANG Bo1,3, HUANG Zishuo2. Triggering Process and Risk Factor Coupling of Marine Traffic Accident Based on N-K Model[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2022, 41(03): 25-30.

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基于N-K模型的水上交通事故触发过程及风险因素耦合研究

Triggering Process and Risk Factor Coupling of Marine Traffic Accident Based on N-K Model

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