Abstract：It is of great significance to predict the port container throughput correctly for port planning and design as well as the development of national economics and science. In order to reduce the error and improve the accuracy of prediction, a multi-factor dynamic generation coefficient method combined with logistic growth model was established, which fully utilized the advantages of the model in dealing with the behavior of complex systems. The prediction studies of port container throughput from 2005 to 2018 were carried out according to the historical data of Tianjin Port, Shanghai Port and Qingdao Port. The research results show that: the proposed logistic growth model can improve the medium and long-term prediction accuracy, and the prediction results are ideal. The container throughput of Tianjin Port in next decade is predicted again by using the modified method, which provides a certain reference value for regional port planning and layout. In addition, the application scope of logistic growth model is not only limited to container port prediction, but also has high utilization space for the prediction of population size, environmental bearing capacity, industrial growth and other aspects of urban total plan related to GDP.
杨波1，刘昱1，杨政龙2. 引入逻辑斯蒂增长模型的集装箱吞吐量长期预测[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2020, 39(11): 45-50.
YANG Bo1，LIU Yu1，YANG Zhenglong2. Long Term Prediction of Container Throughput Based on
Logistic Growth Model. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2020, 39(11): 45-50.
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2020, Vol. 39 
