Abstract: In order to solve the problem of passenger flow instability in the early stage of railway passenger dedicated line, taking full account of the potential demand under transport restrictions, a multivariate Logit model was constructed to forecast the traffic flow in the channel based on the economy and transport impedance of transportation modes. Meanwhile, the induced passenger volume was forecasted through the comparison of passenger service promotion rate before and after the operation of passenger dedicated line. Then taking the newly built Chengdu-Mianyang-Leshan passenger dedicated line as an example, the total passenger traffic volume of the channel in 2017 and 2020 was obtained by forecasting the trend passenger volume, the transfer passenger volume and the induced passenger volume respectively at initial operation stage. The above study provides a new idea for forecasting the system of railway passenger dedicated line.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, passenger volume prediction, elastic coefficient, the transfer passenger volume, multinomial Logit model, the induced passenger volume

摘要： 为解决铁路客运专线建成初期客流形成不稳定的问题，充分考虑受运输条件限制的潜在需求，基于运输方式的经济性和运输阻抗，构建多元Logit模型预测通道内转移客流量，通过对比客运专线开通前后客运服务提升率对诱增客运量进行预测。以新建成的成绵乐客运专线为例，分别对其趋势客运量、转移客运量、诱增客运量运营初期预测，得到2017年和2020年通道总客运量，为铁路客运专线系统预测提供一种新思路。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 客运量预测, 弹性系数, 转移客运量, 多元Logit模型, 诱增客运量