Abstract: Since January 2020, with Wuhan as the center, COVID-19 has shown explosive growth. Control measures have been quickly imposed, such as traffic control and home quarantine, in order to block the rapid spread of the epidemic, which has significant results. Based on the data collected from 56 cities in the early stage of the outbreak of the epidemic, including economic level, traffic control intensity, timeliness of traffic control and distance from the epidemic center, the relationship between different influencing factors and the largest cumulative number of confirmed cases was explored based on the canonical correlation analysis and mediation effect analysis.The results show that the most influential factor on the cumulative number of confirmed cases is economic level, followed by the relative distance, the timeliness of traffic control and the intensity of traffic control; among them, 35.21% of the impact of economic level on the cumulative number of confirmed cases is caused by the intermediary role of timeliness of traffic control;in addition,the intensity of traffic control has a significant moderating effect on the impact of the timeliness of control on the cumulative number of confirmed cases.

Key words: traffic engineering, novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), canonical correlation analysis, public traffic, control timeliness, control intensity

摘要： 自2020-01以武汉为中心的新冠肺炎出现爆发式增长以来，交通管控和居家隔离等管控措施，对阻断疫情的快速传播有显著效果。通过收集疫情爆发初期全国56个城市的数据：经济水平、交通管控强度、交通管控及时性、与疫情中心的距离，基于典型相关性分析和中介效应分析探究不同影响因素与最大累计确诊人数的关系。结果显示：对累计确诊人数影响最大的因素是经济水平，其次依次为相对距离、交通管控及时性、交通管控强度；其中，经济水平对累计确诊人数的影响中有35.21%是由交通管控及时性这一中介作用引起的；此外，交通管控强度在管控及时性对累计确诊人数的影响中具有显著调节作用。

关键词: 交通工程, 新冠肺炎(COVID-19), 典型相关分析, 公共交通, 管控及时性, 管控强度