Abstract: Improving the emergency response capacity of dangerous goods transportation accidents can effectively reduce the severity of accidents. Taking the emergency response system for dangerous goods road transportation accidents as the research object, the system was divided into four subsystems: accident information processing, rescue materials delivery, personnel rescue and evacuation as well as vehicle evacuation. On this basis, the causal mechanism and the loop diagrams of for the emergency response process were established by use of the principles of system dynamics. And combined with VENSIM software, a system flow diagram of emergency response process was constructed, and the relationship equations of each variable were constructed. Firstly, six factors were selected as parameters to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed model, including the number of dispatching transportation vehicles, the informatization level of warehousing, task execution speed, information feedback time, the delay time of traffic control and the distance from rescue institutions. Then, the influence of factors such as on-site material demand gap, number of people in safe areas, number of vehicles in safe areas, amount of on-site information, and system dynamic evolution behavior on the observed values was analyzed. The results show that when the number of dispatching transportation vehicles is doubled, the peak value of on-site material inventory increases by 27%, the task execution speed increases by 8.9% and the execution speed of emergency disposal increases by 8.8%. The delay time of traffic control is shortened by 360 s, the number of vehicles to be evacuated reduces by 116, the distance from rescue institutions is shortened by 60% and the rescue rate reaches its peak 1 238 seconds ahead of schedule.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering; emergency management; road transportation of dangerous goods; accident disposal; system dynamics; simulation

摘要： 提高危险货物运输事故的应急能力能够有效降低事故严重程度。以危险货物道路运输事故应急处置系统为研究对象，将其划分为事故信息处理、救援物资调运、人员救援与疏散和车辆疏散等4个子系统的基础上，利用系统动力学原理建立应急处置过程因果关系机制和因果回路，并结合VENSIM软件构建应急处置过程系统流图，构建各变量关系方程。首先，选取运输车辆调运车次、仓储信息化程度、任务执行速度、信息反馈时间、交通管制延迟时间和救援机构距离这6个因素作为参数，对模型进行敏感性分析。然后，分析了现场物资需求缺口、安全区域人数、安全区域车辆数、现场信息量以及系统动态演化行为等因素对观测值的影响。结果表明：运输车辆调运车次增加一倍，现场物资库存量峰值将增加27%；任务执行速度提高8.9%，应急处置执行速度提高8.8%；交通管制延迟时间缩短360 s，待疏散车辆减少116辆；救援机构距离缩短60%，救援速率提前1 238 s达到峰值。

关键词: 交通运输工程；应急管理；危险货物道路运输；事故处置；系统动力学；模拟仿真