Abstract: Newbuilding price is a very important factor considered by investors in shipping market． There are many factors influencing the newbuilding price． Some of them just can be qualitatively analyzed，but several key factors can be quantitatively analyzed.In order to find the key factors affecting newbuilding price，double-log-linear regression model was established to analyze the influencing degree of each factor based on the relationship between price and influencing factors． It is found that，for Capesize bulk carrier，the ship building cost affects newbuilding price most significantly，next is the secondhand ship price and ratio of orderbook and fleet．

Key words: newbuilding price, affecting factor, relationship, double-log-linear regression model

摘要： 新船价格是航运市场投资者在做新造船决策时所要考虑的重要指标，而影响新船价格的因素众多，虽有些因 素只能定性研究，但多个关键影响因素仍可量化研究。以航运市场中重要船型———好望角型散货船为研究对象，在 分析相关可量化因素与新船价格关系的基础之上，构建双对数线性回归模型分析各因素对新船船价的影响程度，发 现对于新造好望角型散货船而言，二手船船价、新造船成本以及手持订单量与船队规模的比值对新船船价影响显 著，其中造船成本对其价格影响程度最大，其次才是二手船船价和手持订单量与船队规模的比值。

关键词: 新造船船价, 影响因素, 相关关系, 双对数线性回归模型