Abstract: Many geological prediction methods have been researched and developed nowadays and each method has its features． It is important to choose rational methods based on the applicability and geological conditions that the operation time and cost can be reduced effectively and the prediction results should be accurate to assure construction safety． Taking the entrance part of Chunshuya Tunnel Project as example，the membership degree theory of fuzzy mathematics was adopted to deal with the fuzzy information of prediction proposals quantitively． The multi-factors of each proposal were evaluated and finally figured out that the best method was“TRT + GPR + pre-drilling”． The result of in-situ application showed that the prediction was successful to explore the potential karst geologic bodies that may bring about tunnel geo-hazards and the preventive measures based on prediction ensured construction safety effectively．

Key words: tunnel, geological prediction, fuzzy optimization, TRT, GPR

摘要： 以某公路隧道工程进口段为例，利用模糊数学中的隶属度理论对预报方案的模糊信息进行定量化处理，再对 预防方案的多因素进行定量评价，得出优选预报方案为“TRT + 地质雷达+ 超前钻孔”。通过现场实践，模糊优选后 的施工地质预报方法基本揭露了隧道前方存在的破碎围岩位置与岩溶不良地质体，基于预报结论实施的预防措施 有效地防止了涌水、突泥等施工事故的发生，保障了施工安全。

关键词: 隧道, 地质预报, 模糊优选, TRT, 地质雷达