Abstract: In order to study the mechanism and characteristics of urban traffic congestion propagation patterns, an urban traffic congestion propagation model was proposed based on SIS propagation theory. Firstly, the identification methods for the traffic status of road sections were determined, and the numerical changes in congestion propagation efficiency and dissipation efficiency under different identification criteria were compared and analyzed. Secondly, the difference of travel time was considered, and the time deviation parameters were added into classical SIS theory. Then, the variation trend of the proportion of congested road sections over time and the relationship between the proportion of congested road sections and their change rate were studied and taken as a basis to describe the characteristics of congestion propagation. Finally, the Chengdu road traffic network was used as the research road network, and the proposed model was calibrated and validated by using real data during morning peak hours. The results show that the proposed model can accurately describe the relationship between the proportion of congested road sections and their change rate.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering; urban traffic; congestion propagation model; virus transmission theory; network traffic congestion; traffic state identification

摘要： 为研究城市交通拥堵传播的机理与特性，建立了基于SIS传播理论的城市交通拥堵传播模型。首先，确定了路段交通状态的判别方法，并比较分析了不同判别标准下拥堵传播效率和消散效率的数值变化；其次，考虑了出行时间的差异性并在经典SIS理论中加入了时间偏差参数；随后，研究了拥堵路段比例随时间的变化趋势以及拥堵路段比例与其变化率间的关系，并将其作为描述拥堵传播特征的依据；最后，以成都市道路交通网络作为研究路网，以早高峰真实数据对模型进行标定与验证。结果表明，模型可以精确地描述拥堵路段比例与其变化率之间的关系。

关键词: 交通运输工程；城市交通；拥堵传播模型；病毒传播理论；网络交通拥堵；交通状态识别