关键词: 道路工程, 路基沉降预测, 非等时距灰色Verhulst模型, 软土路基, SA算法

Abstract: Soft soil subgrade of highway will have large settlement after the completion of construction，and it may produce an impact on the vehicle traffic at the post stage.Therefore，the research on the prediction for soft soil subgrade settlement was carried out.According to the settlement data detected in practical engineering，a non-equidistance grey Verhulst model was established by using the scientific computing packages of python.Then the SA algorithm (simulated annealing algorithm) was applied to optimize the model，and the optimal solution of model parameters as well as final settlement was obtained.Meanwhile，the settlement prediction curve of subgrade changing with time was given.Comparative analysis and error analysis with the curve of conventional non-equidistance grey Verhulst model was carried out.The result shows that the model optimized with SA algorithm can better reflect the settlement regulation of soft soil subgrade，which can be applied to the settement prediction of soft soil subgrade.

Key words: highway engineering, subgrade settlement prediction, non-equidistance grey Verhulst model, soft soil subgrade, SA algorithm