关键词: 交通运输工程, BP神经网络, 安全评价, 模型, 可靠性

Abstract: There is a great potential safety hazard in the special line of Guo-Bai Railway，due to its backward basic equipments and natural serious disaster.Therefore，it is very significant to carry out the safety evaluation on it.Because BP neural network had strong adaptability to the nonlinear and complexity of the safety evaluation of the special line of Guo-Bai Railway，the safety evaluation model of the special line of Guo-Bai Railway was established based on BP neural network.The improved BP neural network algorithm was adopted in the proposed model.Compared with the conventional algorithm，the improved BP neural network algorithm had the advantages of fast convergence，high calculation accuracy and high prediction accuracy.According to the special characteristics of the special line of Guo-Bai Railway，a set of safety evaluation index system easy to assign value and fit the actuality was set up，which increased the reliability of the model.The safety evaluation model of the special line of Guo-Bai Railway based on BP neural network and its prediction results provide reference and basis for the scientific management of the special line of Guo-Bai Railway.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, BP neural network, security evaluation, model, reliability