基于投影寻踪的城市内涝灾害韧性评估研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2023.11.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 全球气温变化导致与气候相关的城市自然灾害事件频发，严重影响到城市公共安全。目前针对城市内涝灾害韧性评价体系的构建多是从城市系统各个组成结构角度出发，且在评价模型构建方面均采用了主观性较强的评价方法。笔者从抵抗力、恢复力和适应力3个方面选取27个具体指标建立了城市内涝灾害韧性评价指标体系，基于投影寻踪模型构建了内涝灾害韧性评价模型，采用实码加速遗传算法进行优化求解；针对高维数据，此模型能直接从数据本身找出其结构和特征，避免了主观判断的局限性，使评价结果更加真实可靠；最后利用该模型对河南省18个地级市的城市内涝灾害韧性进行评估分析。研究结果表明：河南省18个地级市的城市内涝灾害韧性水平存在明显差异，郑州市的韧性评价值最高，其次是洛阳市和焦作市，濮阳市的韧性评价值最低；医疗条件、经济水平和基础设施建设对城市内涝灾害韧性水平影响较大。

关键词: 资源环境；内涝灾害；城市韧性；投影寻踪；实码加速遗传算法

Abstract: The intensification of global temperature changes has caused frequent urban natural disaster events related to climate, seriously affecting the public safety of cities. At present, the construction of the urban waterlogging disaster resilience evaluation system is mostly from the perspective of various components of urban systems, and the subjective evaluation methods are used in the evaluation model construction. Based on this, 27 specific indicators were selected to establish resilience evaluation system for urban waterlogging disaster from 3 aspects such as resistance, recovery capability and adaptive capacity, and the urban waterlogging disaster resilience evaluation model based on the projection pursuit model was established. The real code accelerated genetic algorithm was adopted to optimize the solution. For high-dimensional data, the proposed model could directly identify its structure and features from the data itself, avoiding the limitations of subjective judgment and making the evaluation results more authentic and reliable. Finally, the proposed model was used to evaluate and analyze the resilience of urban waterlogging disasters in 18 prefecture level cities in Henan Province. The research results show that there are obvious differences in the resilience levels of urban waterlogging disasters in 18 prefecture level cities in Henan Province, among which Zhengzhou has the highest resilience evaluation value, followed by Luoyang and Jiaozuo, and Puyang has the lowest resilience evaluation value. The medical conditions, economic level and infrastructure construction have a great impact on the resilience level of urban waterlogging disasters.

Key words: resource and environment; waterlogging disaster; urban resilience; projection pursuit; RAGA

中图分类号:

焦柳丹，唐莲，霍小森，张羽. 基于投影寻踪的城市内涝灾害韧性评估研究[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 42(11): 72-79.

JIAO Liudan, TANG Lian, HUO Xiaosen, ZHANG Yu. Urban Waterlogging Disaster Resilience Evaluation Based on RAGA-PP[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2023, 42(11): 72-79.

参考文献

［1］李正兆，傅大放，王君娴，等.应对内涝灾害的城市韧性评估模型及应用［J］.清华大学学报(自然科学版)，2022，62(2)：266-276.
LI Zhengzhao, FU Dafang, WANG Junxian, et al. Urban resilience assessment model for waterlogging disasters and its application ［J］. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 2022, 62(2): 266-276.
［2］刘家福，张柏.暴雨洪灾风险评估研究进展［J］.地理科学，2015，35(3)：346-351.
LIU Jiafu, ZHANG Bai. Progress of rainstorm flood risk assessment ［J］. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(3): 346-351.
［3］杨帆，许莹，段宁.城市洪涝韧性治理体系的智慧化转型与实现路径创新［J］.城市发展研究，2021，28(5)：119-126.
YANG Fan, XU Ying, DUAN Ning. Intelligent transformation and path innovation of urban flood resilience management system ［J］. Urban Development Studies, 2021, 28(5):119-126.
［4］ ZHANG H M, YANG J Y, LI L S, et al. Measuring the resilience to floods: A comparative analysis of key flood control cities in China ［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021, 59: 102248.
［5］ KOTZEE L, REYERS B. Piloting a social-ecological index for measuring flood resilience: A composite index approach ［J］. Ecological Indicators, 2016, 60:45-53.
［6］ WANG P, LI Y, ZHANG Y H. An urban system perspective on urban flood resilience using SEM: Evidence from Nanjing city, China ［J］. Natural Hazards, 2021, 109(3):2575-2599.
［7］ ORENCIO P M, FUJII M A localized disaster-resilience index to assess coastal communities based on an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) ［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2013, 3(1): 62-75.
［8］ QASIM S, QASIM M, SHRESTHA R P, et al. Community resilience to flood hazards in Khyber Pukhthunkhwa province of Pakistan ［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2016, 18:100-106.
［9］朱金鹤，孙红雪.中国三大城市群城市韧性时空演进与影响因素研究［J］.软科学，2020，34(2)：72-79.
ZHU Jinhe, SUN Hongxue. Research on spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban resilience of China’s three metropolitan agglomerations ［J］. Soft Science, 2020, 34(2):72-79.
［10］ LIU D, FAN Z R, FU Q, et al. Random forest regression evaluation model of regional flood disaster resilience based on the whale optimiza-tion algorithm ［J］. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 250: 119468.
［11］陈长坤，陈以琴，施波，等.雨洪灾害情境下城市韧性评估模型［J］.中国安全科学学报，2018，28(4)：1-6.
CHEN Changkun, CHEN Yiqin, SHI Bo, et al. A model for evaluating urban resilience to rainstorm flood disasters ［J］. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(4): 1-6.
［12］ LIU D, FENG J P, LI H, et al. Spatiotemporal variation analysis of regional ood disaster resilience capability using an improved projection pursuit model based on the wind-driven optimization algorithm ［J］. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 241:118406.
［13］ LI Z M, ZHANG X X, MA Y F, et al. A multi-criteria decision making method for urban flood resilience evaluation with hybrid uncertainties ［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019, 36: 101140.
［14］ ZHU S Y, LI D Z, HUANG G Y, et al. Enhancing urban flood resilience: A holistic framework incorporating historic worst flood to Yangtze River Delta, China ［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021, 61:102355.
［15］李琳，王俊杰.四川省城市地震灾害脆弱性综合评价研究［J］.震灾防御技术，2018，13(4)：968-977.
LI Lin, WANG Junjie. Comprehensive evaluation of urban earthquake disaster vulnerability in Sichuan province ［J］. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2018, 13(4): 968-977.
［16］闭闲，杨红英.基于投影寻踪模型的康养旅游人才环境评价研究［J］.社会科学家，2021(4)：47-51.
BI Xian, YANG Hongying. Research on environmental evaluation of healthy tourism talents based on projection pursuit model ［J］. Social Scientist, 2021(4):47-51.
［17］闵德权,孙海萍.基于GASA的带时间窗航运空箱调运模型［J］.重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版)，2022，41(6)：8-13.
MIN Dequan, SUN Haiping. Model of empty container transportation with time window based on GASA ［J］. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University (Natural Science), 2022, 41(6): 8-13.
［18］郭豪杰，龙蔚，张德亮.基于投影寻踪模型对乡村振兴的评价［J］.世界农业，2019(12)：44-52.
GUO Haojie, LONG Wei, ZHANG Deliang. The evaluation of rural revitalization based on the projection model ［J］. World Agriculture， 2019(12): 44-52.
［19］程建华，郑玉佳.基于层次聚类法的地区经济高质量发展差异性分析——以安徽省地市为例［J］.铜陵学院学报，2021，20(5)：3-8.
CHENG Jianhua, ZHENG Yujia. Analysis on the difference of regional high quality economic development based on hierarchical clustering method: A case study of Anhui Province ［J］. Journal of Tongling University, 2021, 20(5):3-8.
［20］袁秋玲，孟凡鑫，李芬，等.食物—能源—水关联视角下蓝绿基础设施提升城市韧性的概念框架［J］.城市发展研究，2022，29(8)：20-27.
YUAN Qiuling, MENG Fanxin, LI Fen, et al. A conceptual framework for enhancing urban resilience with green and blue infrastructure from the perspective of food-energy-water nexus ［J］. Urban Development Studies, 2022, 29(8): 20-27.
［21］李辉，李昊臻，王雪峰，等.透水铺装雨水入渗模型与影响因素相关性研究［J］.中国公路学报，2019，32(4)：148-157.
LI Hui, LI Haozhen, WANG Xuefeng, et al. Development of rainfall infiltration model for permeable pavement and evaluation on its influencing factors ［J］. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2019, 32(4):148-157.
［22］李永革，潘晓丹. 濮阳金堤河流域“8·18”暴雨洪水分析［J］.黄河水利职业技术学院学报，2021，33(3)：9-14.
LI Yongge, PAN Xiaodan. Analysis on “8·18” rainstorm and flood of Jindi river basin of Puyang ［J］. Journal of Yellow River Conservancy Technical Institute, 2021, 33(3):9-14.
［23］苏伯尼，黄弘，张楠.基于情景模拟的城市内涝动态风险评估方法［J］.清华大学学报(自然科学版)，2015，55(6)：684-690.
SU Boni, HUANG Hong, ZHANG Nan. Dynamic urban waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulations ［J］. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 2015, 55(6): 684-690.

[1]	牟凤云1，杨猛1，余情2，刘振涛3. 基于RF-RUSLE模型的水土流失性公路自然灾害风险评估——以重庆市巴南区为例[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2020, 39(11): 114-121.
[2]	许家美. 三峡库区典型危岩形成机制及治理技术研究[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2017, 36(8): 70-75.
[3]	杨洁，杨上清，肖盛燮. 强震边坡动力响应及安全系数计算[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2011, 30(2): 277-281.
[4]	肖盛燮，隋严春，刘文方，周菊芳. 孕源断链在土地沙漠化防御技术中的实践剖析[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2007, 26(3): 149-152.
[5]	吴执1，张武超2，王琅1，彭璟1，李林杰2. 烟囱效应对电缆隧道火灾蔓延影响研究[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 42(2): 60-66.
[6]	党学亚1,2,3，顾小凡1,2,3，常亮1,2,3. 柴达木盆地地下水位上升灾害防治对策[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 42(8): 64-69.