关键词: 交通工程；事故严重程度；老年行人；时间不稳定性；均值异质性的随机参数Logit模型

Abstract: In order to explore the gender differences in injury severity involving elderly pedestrians, a random parameter Logit model with heterogeneity in means was used to analyze the heterogeneity and temporal instability of the influencing factors of injury severity of elderly pedestrians for males and females, respectively. The injury severity was classified into three categories, including property-damage-only injuries, minor injuries and serious injuries. 26 influencing factors were selected from four aspects such as people, vehicles, roads and the environment. The heterogeneity of influencing factors of accident severity was captured by the mean change of random parameters. The temporal instability of the influencing factors and transferability on gender were analyzed by using the logarithm likelihood ratio test, and the marginal effect was used to analyze the influence of each significant factor on accident injury severity. The research results show that: there are significant differences in the severity of accidents involving elderly pedestrians between males and females, and these factors exhibit significant temporal instability and non-transferability. Driver escape is only significant in elderly female traffic accidents in 2016, accidents occurring in the workplace are only significant in elderly male traffic accidents in 2017, the use of directional signs as a traffic control method is significant in elderly male traffic accidents from 2015 to 2017, and the use of crossroads as an intersection type is significant in elderly female traffic accidents from 2015 to 2017, but the effect on property-damage-only accidents show opposite effects.

Key words: traffic engineering; injury severity; elderly pedestrians; temporal instability; random parameters Logit model with heterogeneity in means