地铁“隧道-四电”技术接口施工进度风险仿真研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2025.06.07

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为实现对地铁隧道工程施工进度的优化控制，针对地铁“隧道-四电”技术接口施工过程中存在的诸多不确定风险，构建一种基于耦合优化相关进度风险分析模型（CSRAM）和贝叶斯信念网络（BBNs）的施工进度仿真模型。首先，对影响施工进度的风险因素进行识别，并运用BBNs量化风险因素对技术接口活动施工进度的非叠加性影响，计算得到风险因素表现情况概率边界；其次，运用层次-熵权法对传统的CSRAM进行优化，并考虑风险因素之间的相互关系、技术接口任务活动之间的相互关系以及风险因素与技术接口任务活动之间的相互关系；最后，构建耦合优化CSRAM和BBNs模型，运用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）仿真方法以北京地铁17号线北段工程为例进行仿真分析，计算施工进度的完工概率，并通过调整风险因素的概率边界，对地铁“隧道-四电”技术接口的风险因素进行敏感性分析。结果表明：地铁“隧道-四电”技术接口在风险因素影响下的完工工期为576天，按期完工概率为83.43%，接口工序施工技术管理不足、接口参与方的沟通不畅是影响技术接口施工进度最敏感的风险因素。研究结果验证了地铁“隧道-四电”技术接口施工进度仿真模型的适用性，可为地铁“隧道-四电”技术接口施工进度控制和风险管理提供理论依据。

关键词: 交通运输工程；地铁“隧道-四电”；技术接口；耦合优化CSRAM和BBNs；进度仿真；风险因素

Abstract: In order to realize the optimal control of the construction progress of the subway tunnel project, a construction progress simulation model based on the coupling optimization-related progress risk analysis model (CSRAM) and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) was built for the uncertain risks in the construction process of the subway “tunnel-four electricity” technical interface. Firstly, the risk factors affecting the construction schedule were identified, and BBNs were used to quantify the non-overlapping effects of the risk factors on the construction schedule of the technical interface activities, and the probability boundary of risk factor performance was calculated out. Secondly, the hierarchical-entropy weight method was used to optimize the traditional CSRAM, with the consideration of the interrelationships between risk factors, the interrelationships between technical interface task activities, and the interrelationships between risk factors and technical interface task activities. Finally, the coupled optimization CSRAM and BBNs models were constructed. The northern section of Beijing Metro Line 17 was taken as an example to carry out simulation analysis by Monte Carlo simulation method. The completion probability of the construction progress was calculated, and sensitivity analysis on the risk factors of subway “tunnel-four electricity” technical interface was carried out by adjusting the probability boundary of risk factors. The results show that the completion period of subway “tunnel-four electricity” technical interface under the influence of risk factors is 576 days, and the completion probability on schedule is 83.43%. Insufficient technical management of the interface process and poor communication between interface participants are the most sensitive risk factors affecting the construction progress of the technical interface. The research results verify the applicability of the simulation model of the construction process of the subway “tunnel-four electricity” technical interface, which can provide a theoretical basis for the construction progress control and risk management of subway “tunnel-four electricity” technical interface.

Key words: transportation engineering; subway “tunnel-four electricity”; technical interface; coupling optimization of CSRAM and BBNs; progress simulation; risk factors

中图分类号:

U231.3

闫林君1，刘晶晶1，李飞2，王亚妮1 ，陈慧鑫1. 地铁“隧道-四电”技术接口施工进度风险仿真研究[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 44(6): 64-72.

YAN Linjun1，LIU Jingjing1，LI Fei2，WANG Yani1，CHEN Huixin1. Simulation Study on Construction Progress Risks of Subway “Tunnel-Four Electricity” Technology Interface[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2025, 44(6): 64-72.

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