基于产业链供应链的三峡过闸煤炭运量分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2025.08.05

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (8): 33-41.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2025.08.05

• 港口航道·水利水电·资源环境 • 上一篇

基于产业链供应链的三峡过闸煤炭运量分析

叶文静1，杜洪波2，万宇2

(1. 重庆交通大学水利水运工程教育部重点实验室，重庆 400074； 2. 重庆交通大学国家内河航道整治工程技术研究中心，重庆 400074)

收稿日期:2024-04-02 修回日期:2024-05-24 发布日期:2025-09-05
作者简介:叶文静（2000—），女，四川成都人，博士研究生，主要从事航运经济方面的研究。E-mail：1069826389@qq.com 通信作者：杜洪波（1994—），男，重庆人，副教授，博士，主要从事航道规划与治理方面的研究。E-mail：duhongbo@cqjtu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（52079013）；重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究项目（KJZD-K202300703）；重庆市自然科学基金项目（cstc2021jcyj-jqX0009）

Coal Transportation Volume through the Three Gorges Dam Ship Locks Based on Industrial and Supply Chain

YE Wenjing1, DU Hongbo2, WAN Yu2

(1. Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Hydraulic and Waterway Transport Engineering，Chongqing Jiaotong University，Chongqing 400074，China；2. National Inland Waterway Regulation Engineering Research Center， Chongqing Jiaotong University，Chongqing 400074，China)

Received:2024-04-02 Revised:2024-05-24 Published:2025-09-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 三峡船闸的高效畅通对于长江上游区域经济发展及沿线产业布局极为重要，解决三峡拥堵现状的基本前提在于合理判断过闸运输需求及发展趋势。以煤炭为例，开展三峡过闸运输需求分析。首先，调查了长江上游煤炭的产业链供应链，揭示了三峡过闸煤炭产供消特征，明确了长江上游地区运输需求和运输流向。其次，分析了三峡过闸煤炭货运量的主要影响因素，发现基于产业链供应链的选择因素与过闸量相关性较强，解释了选择因素与货运量之间的内在联系和相互作用机理。最后，将选择因素分别带入BP、LSTM和Bi-LSTM模型，均证明相较于传统方法基于产业链供应链的回测结果更加准确，进一步从宏观政策影响和产业发展角度分析了三峡过闸煤炭运输需求。研究结果为区域货运量的预测提供了新思路，结合运输货物的产业链供应链可以更合理预测运量和发展趋势，为运输行业发展提供支撑。

关键词: 交通运输工程；产业链供应链；三峡船闸；煤炭；运输需求

Abstract: The efficient and smooth operation of the Three Gorges Dam ship locks is crucial for the economic development of the upstream region of the Yangtze River and the industrial layout along the river. The basic premise for solving the congestion status at the Three Gorges Dam ship locks is to make a reasonable judgment of the transportation demand for passing through the locks and development trends. Taking coal as an example, the analysis on its transportation demand through Three Gorges Dam ship locks was carried out. Firstly, the industrial and supply chain of coal in the upstream Yangtze River was investigated, the characteristics of coal production, supply and consumption through the Three Gorges Dam ship locks were revealed, and the transportation demand and flow direction in the upstream Yangtze River region were clarified. Secondly, the main influencing factors of coal freight volume passing through the Three Gorges Dam ship locks were analyzed. It was found that the selected factors based on the selection of the industrial chain and supply chain were strongly correlated with the volume passing through the ship locks, which explained the intrinsic relationship and interaction mechanism between the selected factors and the freight volume. Finally, the selected factors were respectively incorporated into BP, LSTM and Bi-LSTM models, all of which demonstrated that the back-testing results based on the industrial and supply chain were more accurate compared to those of traditional methods. And the transportation demand for coal passing through the Three Gorges Dam ship locks was further analyzed from the perspectives of macro-policy influence and industrial development. The research results provide new ideas for predicting regional freight volume and combining with the industrial chain and supply chain of transporting goods can more reasonably predict freight volume and development trends, providing support for the development of the transportation industry.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering; industrial and supply chain; Three Gorges Dam ship lock; coal; transportation needs

中图分类号:

U6-9

叶文静1，杜洪波2，万宇2. 基于产业链供应链的三峡过闸煤炭运量分析[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 44(8): 33-41.

YE Wenjing1, DU Hongbo2, WAN Yu2. Coal Transportation Volume through the Three Gorges Dam Ship Locks Based on Industrial and Supply Chain[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2025, 44(8): 33-41.

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基于产业链供应链的三峡过闸煤炭运量分析

Coal Transportation Volume through the Three Gorges Dam Ship Locks Based on Industrial and Supply Chain

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