关键词: 交通工程；碳达峰时间；Gompertz模型；灰色预测；情景分析

Abstract: Carbon emissions are a critical issue in global ecological governance. In China, the transportation industry is a major source of carbon emissions, ranking only after the energy industry, manufacturing and construction. Taking road traffic vehicles in Fujian Province as the research object, combined with the basic data such as the economy, population and vehicle ownership of this province, the accuracy of the grey prediction model and the Gompertz-based model was compared. Three low-carbon scenarios, including conventional, enhanced and aggressive ones, were set up to predict the carbon emissions from road transportation in Fujian Province from 2021 to 2035. The prediction results indicate that the accuracy of the Gompertz model prediction method is higher than that of the grey prediction method. Under the current trend, it is difficult for Fujian Province to achieve carbon peaking in road transportation by 2030. However, through measures such as promoting new energy vehicles, optimizing travel structure, and improving engine energy efficiency, it is expected to reach the peak in 2029.

Key words: traffic engineering; carbon peak time; Gompertz model; gray prediction; scenario analysis