关键词: 小波分解, 交通流, 混沌, 预测

Abstract: Aiming at the deficiency of current forecasting of short-term traffic flow,the method of combining wavelet transformation and chaos theory is proposed to model and forecast short-term traffic flow.Firstly,using wavelet decomposition theory,traffic flow series are decomposed respectively into two parts:the low frequency part and the high frequency part.And the further analysis of decomposition indicates that a chaos feature exists in the traffic flow.Secondly,using chaos theory,the chaotic forecasting models are established to forecast the low frequency part and the high frequency part respectively.Finally,the forecasting result of chaotic model is reconstructed by wavelet theory.By doing so,the forecasting of the original traffic flow series can be made.The result demonstrates that this method is of high precision and has extensive potential applications.

Key words: wavelet decomposition, traffic flow, chaos, forecasting