中文核心期刊
CSCD来源期刊
中国科技核心期刊
RCCSE中国核心学术期刊

重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 1988, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (3): 96-101.

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动态系统的循环预报方法

陈国祯, 许茂增   

  • 收稿日期:1988-06-22 出版日期:1988-06-20 发布日期:2016-11-08

A Cyclic Forecast Method of Dynamic Systems

Chen Guozhen, Xu Maozeng   

  • Received:1988-06-22 Online:1988-06-20 Published:2016-11-08

摘要: 在动态系统的预报问题中,未来的输入变量常常也是未知的,而且输出变量对输入变量具有反馈作用。这样的系统在社会、经济系统中是经常发生的事情。比如,我们在研究三峡航运系统分析中,货运量的预测就是属于这一类问题。本文针对这类预报问题提出了动态系统的循环预报方法。给出了离散系统的预报模型的一般形式和预报步骤,同时对预报结果的误差估计进行了理论分析。结果是富有启发性的。

Abstract: In the forecast of dynamic systems, future values of system input varibles are often unknown, and influenced by those of system output varibles in the way of feedback. Such forecast problems often occur in social-economic systems. The forecast of freight quantity to be transported is such an example, which we met when we studied the problem of transportation in the Three Gorges on Yangtze River. In this paper,the cyclic forecast method is proposed to solve such problems.The general formof discrete time system model and the forecasting procedure are given.The forecasting error is analysed and the results are heuristic.