中文核心期刊
CSCD来源期刊
中国科技核心期刊
RCCSE中国核心学术期刊

重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (07): 102-106.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2019.07.17

• 交通运输工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

综合客运交通系统演化建模与求解

宋成举1,张亚平2   

  1. (1. 黑龙江工程学院 汽车与交通工程学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150050; 2. 哈尔滨工业大学 交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150090)
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-27 修回日期:2018-03-10 出版日期:2019-07-02 发布日期:2019-07-02
  • 作者简介:宋成举(1983—),男,黑龙江肇源人,副教授,博士,主要从事交通结构演化及建模方面的研究。E-mail:songchengju@sohu.com。
  • 基金资助:
    黑龙江省青年科学基金项目(QC2014C060);黑龙江省普通高等学校青年创新人才培养计划项目(UNPYSCT-2018090); 黑龙江省省属本科高校基本科研业务费科研项目(2018CX08);哈尔滨市科技创新青年后备人才计划项目(2015RAQXJ039);黑龙江工程学院博士基金项目(2015BJ03)

Evolution Modeling and Solution of the Integrated Passenger Transportation System

SONG Chengju1, ZHANG Yaping2   

  1. (1. School of Automotive and Transportation Engineering, Heilongjiang Institute of Technology, Harbin 150050, Heilongjiang, P. R. China; 2. School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, Heilongjiang, P. R. China)
  • Received:2017-11-27 Revised:2018-03-10 Online:2019-07-02 Published:2019-07-02

摘要: 综合客运交通系统在系统内外部因素的共同作用下而不断演化,但对于各种运输方式之间的作用机制及整个系统的演化趋势认识尚不明确。通过分析综合客运交通系统的自组织特性,选择客运周转量作为系统变量,采用流体运动方程描述系统演化进程,借鉴Logistic模型描述综合客运交通系统演化过程,引入系统随机变量,将演化方程组拆分成Logistic方程部分和随机部分,分别采用矩阵最小二乘法和K阶Fourier级数拟合求解,结合哈尔滨实际数据验证模型有效性。结果表明:综合客运交通系统呈现明显的自组织特性,采用分部拟合的方法能够较好的描述综合客运交通系统的演化进程,预测精度符合要求。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 演化建模, 矩阵最小二乘法, Fourier级数, 客运周转量

Abstract: The integrated passenger transport system is evolving under the combined action of internal and external factors, but it is not clear about the mechanism of various modes of transport and the evolution trend of the whole system. By analyzing the self-organizing characteristics of the integrated passenger transport system, the passenger turnover was taken as the system variable, and the fluid motion equation was used to describe the system evolution process. Logistic model was used to describe the evolution process of the integrated passenger transport system. By introducing system random variables, the evolutionary equations were divided into two parts: Logistic equations part and the stochastic part. Matrices least squares method and K-order Fourier series fitting method were used to solve the evolutionary equations respectively. Combined with the actual data in Harbin, the validity of the proposed model was verified. The results show that the integrated passenger transport system presents obvious self-organizing characteristics. The evolution process of the integrated passenger transport system can be better described by the method of partial fitting, and the prediction accuracy meets the requirements.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, evolution modeling, matrices least squares method, Fourier series, passenger turnover

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