基于混合有序Probit模型的货车翻车驾驶员伤害程度研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2021.02.04

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (02): 21-27.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2021.02.04

• 交通+大数据人工智能 • 上一篇下一篇

基于混合有序Probit模型的货车翻车驾驶员伤害程度研究

李俊辉1，汤左淦2

(1. 广东交通职业技术学院轨道交通学院，广东广州 510650； 2. 深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心股份有限公司，广东深圳 518057)

收稿日期:2019-08-09 修回日期:2019-11-12 出版日期:2021-02-16 发布日期:2021-02-16
作者简介:李俊辉(1984—)，男，湖南永州人，副教授，主要从事交通运输规划与管理、交通安全管理方面的研究。E-mail:272147750@qq.com 通信作者：汤左淦(1994—)，男，江西赣州人，硕士研究生，主要从事交通安全管理方面的研究。E-mail:tangzuogan@sutpc.com
基金资助:
广东省教育厅青年创新人才类项目（2017GkQNCX017）；国家自然科学基金项目（51378222）

Driver Injury Severity in Truck Rollover Accidents Based on Mixed Ordered Probit Model

LI Junhui1, TANG Zuogan2

(1. Rail Traffic Department, Guangdong Vocational Institute of Transportation Technology, Guangzhou 510650, Guangdong, China; 2. Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning & Design Research Center Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518057, Guangdong, China)

Received:2019-08-09 Revised:2019-11-12 Online:2021-02-16 Published:2021-02-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为深入研究货车翻车驾驶员伤害程度的影响因素，考虑驾驶员伤害程度的有序特性和安全因素对驾驶员伤害程度影响的异质性效应，以2016年美国德克萨斯州3 476起货车翻车事故为研究对象，从人、车、路、环境四要素中选取共24个安全因素作为自变量，以驾驶员伤害程度为因变量，分别构建有序Probit模型和混合有序Probit模型。研究结果表明：男性、驾驶员年龄、系安全带、安全气囊起爆、饮酒或吸毒、被甩出车外、未按规定车道行驶、重型货车、车辆右转、不良天气、道路限速值以及车辆出厂年龄与驾驶员伤害程度显著相关。此外，混合有序Probit模型的拟合优度较有序Probit模型的高，并且混合有序Probit模型发现，男性、饮酒或吸毒、被甩出车外以及车辆右转变量对驾驶员伤害程度的影响具有异质性效应。

关键词: 交通工程, 交通安全, 货车事故, 翻车事故, 有序Probit模型, 混合有序Probit模型, 驾驶员伤害程度

Abstract: In order to further study the influencing factors of driver injury severity in truck rollover accidents, the ordered Probit and mixed ordered Probit models were developed by considering the orderly features of driver injury severity and the heterogeneous effects of safety factors on driver injury severity. Based on 3 476 truck rollover accidents in Texas in 2016, 24 safety factors were selected as independent variables from the four factors of human, vehicle, road and environment, and driver injury severity was selected as dependent variable. The results show that male, drivers age, wearing safety belt, airbag deployment, alcohol or drug use, being thrown out of the car, driving not according to the specified lane, heavy truck, vehicle in right-turning, adverse weather conditions, road speed limit, and vehicles ex-factory age are significantly correlated with driver injury severity. In addition, the goodness of fit of the mixed ordered Probit model is higher than that of the ordered Probit model, and the mixed ordered Probit model founds that the influence of variables such as male, alcohol or drug abuse, being thrown out of the car and vehicle in right-turning on the driver injury severity has a heterogeneous effect.

Key words: traffic engineering, traffic safety, truck accident, rollover accident, ordered Probit model, mixed ordered Probit model, driver injury severity

中图分类号:

U491.3

李俊辉1，汤左淦2. 基于混合有序Probit模型的货车翻车驾驶员伤害程度研究[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2021, 40(02): 21-27.

LI Junhui1, TANG Zuogan2. Driver Injury Severity in Truck Rollover Accidents Based on Mixed Ordered Probit Model[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2021, 40(02): 21-27.

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基于混合有序Probit模型的货车翻车驾驶员伤害程度研究

Driver Injury Severity in Truck Rollover Accidents Based on Mixed Ordered Probit Model

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