降雨型滑坡经验性降雨阈值研究综述

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2012.05.18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为更好地对滑坡进行预测预报，将作为滑坡预警重要判据的经验性降雨阈值的研究现状进行分类总结，并结合滑坡产生机理加以评述。提出了经验性降雨阈值目前存在的问题是受客观统计资料影响较大、降雨强度的选择问题、地区性限制明显、如何进行前期降雨时间选择问题、前期降雨型式的考虑问题、降雨、滑坡的周期性对降雨阈值的影响。针对这些问题给出了建议: 经验性降雨阈值应同滑坡产生机理密切结合、经验性降雨阈值应同环境地质背景紧密结合、完善降雨滑坡监测机制，灵活选取经验性降雨阈值。

关键词: 降雨型滑坡, 降雨阈值, 前期降雨, 研究现状

Abstract: In order to predict landslide better，this paper summed up the classification of research status of empirical rainfall threshold which be used as an important criterion of landslide early warning with the landslide formation mechanism． several current problems about empirical rainfall threshold were put forward: 1) the great influence by objective statistics susceptibility; 2) rainfall intensity selection; 3) obvious regional restriction; 4) how to choose the span of antecedent precipitation; 5) the patterns of antecedent precipitation; 6) impact of cyclical rainfall and landslides on rainfall threshold． Then suggestions and outlooks were given in response to these issues: 1) empirical rainfall threshold should be integrated with landslide mechanism closely; 2) empirical rainfall thresholds should be closely combined with environment and geological background; 3) monitoring mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide should be improved and empirical rainfall threshold should be selected flexibly．

Key words: rainfall-induced landslide, rainfall threshold, antecedent precipitation, research status

中图分类号:

TU 642.22

陈洪凯，魏来，谭玲. 降雨型滑坡经验性降雨阈值研究综述[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2012, 31(5): 990-996.

Chen Hongkai，Wei Lai，Tan Ling. Review of Research on Empirical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-Induced Landslide[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2012, 31(5): 990-996.

参考文献

［1］郑孝玉．滑坡预报研究方法综述［J］．世界地质，2000，19(4): 370-374．
Zheng Xiaoyu． Summery on the methods of prediction to landslide［J］． World Geology，2000，19(4): 370-374．
［2］ Caine N． The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslidesand debris flows［J］． Geografiska Annaler: Series A，1980，62(1 /2): 23-27．
［3］周平根，李嫒．滑坡灾害预警准则及预测预报模型方法研究［R］/ /国土资源大调查项目专题报告．北京: 中国地质环境监测院，2002．
［4］ Guzztti F，Peruccacci S，Rossi M． Risk-advanced weather predictionsystem to advise on risk events and management: Definition ofcritical threshold for different scenarios［R］． Action，2005，1(16): 28-30．
［5］ Wilson R C，Wieczorek G F． Rainfall thresholds for the initiationof debris flow at La Honda，California［J］． Environmental ＆ EngineeringGeoscience，1995，1(1): 11-27．
［6］ Crosta G B，Frattini P． Distrtbuted modelling of shallow landslidestriggered by intense rainfall［J］． Natural Hazards and Earth SystemSciences，2003，3(1 /2): 81-93．
［7］ Glade T，Crozier M J，Smith P． Applying probability determinationto refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical“Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model”［J］． Pure and Applied Geophysics，2000，157(6 /8): 1059-1079．
［8］ Guzztti F，Peruccacci S，Rossi M，et al． Rainfall thresholds forthe initiation of landslides［J］． Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics，2007，98(3 /4): 239-267．
［9］ Guzztti F，Peruccacci S，Rossi M，et al． The rainfall intensity-durationcontrol of shallow landslides and debris flows: An update［J］． Landslides，2008，5(1): 3-17．
［10］ Iverson R M． Landslide triggering by rain infiltration［J］． WaterResource Research，2000，36(7): 1897-1910．
［11］ C ChienYuan，C TienChien，Y FanChieh，et al． Rainfall durationand debris-flow initiated studies for real-time monitoring［J］． EnvironmentalGeology，2005，47: 715-724．
［12］ Larsen M C，Simon A． A rainfall intensity-duration threshold forlandslides in a humid-tropical environment，Puerto Rico［J］．Geografiska Annaler: Series A，1993，75(1 /2): 13-23．
［13］ Miller S，Brewer T，Harris N． Rainfall thresholding and susceptibilityassessment of rainfall-induced landslide: Application to landslidemanagement in ST Thomas，Jamaica［J］． Bulletin of EngineeringGeology and Environment，2009，68(4): 539-550．
［14］ Baum R L，Godt J W，Harp E L，et al． Early warning of landslidesfor rain traffic between Seattle and Everett，Washington［C］/ / Proceeding 2005 International Conference on landslide RiskManagement． New York: A． A． Balkema Publishers，2005: 731-740．
［15］ Hong Y，Hiura H，Shino K，et al． The influence of intense rainfallon the activity of large-scale crystalline schist landslides in ShikokuIsland，Japan［J］． Landslides，2005，2(2): 97-105．
［16］麻土华，李长江，孙乐玲，等．浙江地区引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时关系［J］．中国地质灾害与防治学报，2011，22(2): 20-25．
Ma Tuhua，Li Changjiang，Sun Leling，et al． Rainfall intensitydurationthresholds for landslides in Zhejiang region，China［J］．The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control，2011，22(2): 20-25．［17］ Innes J L． Debris flows［J］． Progress in Physical Geography，1983，7(4): 469-501．
［18］ Zezere J L，Rodrigues M L． Rainfall thresholds for landsliding inLisbon Area［C］/ / Landslides． Lisse: A． A． Balkema Publishers，2002: 333-338．［19］ Giannecchini R． Rainfall triggering soil slips in the southernApuane Alps［J］． Advances in Geosciences，2005，2: 21-24．
［20］李明华．降雨滑坡的区域性预测预报研究［M］．成都: 中国科学院成都地理研究所，1985: 13-25．
［21］ Wieczorek G F，Morgan B A，Campbell R H． Debris flow hazardsin the Blue Ridge of Central Virginia［J］． Enviromental ＆ EngineeringGeologists，2000，6: 3-23．
［22］ Aleotti P． A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failure［J］． Enviromental ＆ Engineering Geologists，2004，73: 247-265．
［23］ Bacchini M，Zannoni A． Relations between rainfall and triggeringof debris-flow: A case study of Cancia［J］． Natural Hazards andEarth System Science，2003，3: 71-79．
［24］ Mark E R，Richard G L． Real-time monitoring of active landslidesalong Highway 50，E1 Dorado County［J］． California Geology，1998，5l(3): 17-20．
［25］ Brand E W，Premchitt J，Phillipson H B． Relationship betweenrainfall and landslides in HongKong［C］． Toronto: Proceeding of4th International Symposium Landslides，1984: 377-384．
［26］王兰生，李曰国，詹铮． 1981 年暴雨期四川盆地区岩质滑坡的发育特征［J］．大自然探索，1982(1): 44-51．
Wang Lansheng，Li Yueguo，Zhan Zheng． Development characteristicsof rock landslide in 1981 storm period Sichuan basin area［J］． Discovery of Nature，1982(1): 44-51．
［27］张年学，盛祝平，孙广忠，等．长江三峡工程库区顺层岸坡研究［M］．北京: 地震出版社，1993．
［28］魏丽，郑有飞，单九生．暴雨型滑坡灾害预报预警方法研究评述［J］．气象，2005，31(10): 3-6．
Wei Li，Zheng Youfei，Shan Jiusheng． Review on prediction andwarning method of landslide hazard triggered by heavy rainfall［J］．Meteorological Monthly，2005，31(10): 3-6．
［29］黄润秋，许强，戚国庆．降雨及水库诱发滑坡的评价与预测［M］．北京: 科学出版社，2007．
［30］李晓．重庆地区的强降雨过程与地质灾害的相关分析［J］．中国地质灾害与防治学报，1995，6(3): 24-32．
Li Xiao． Relative analysis between strong rainfall process and geologicalhazards Chongqing city［J］． The Chinese Journal of GeologicalHazard and Control，1995，6(3): 24-32．
［31］杨顺泉．突发性地质灾害防灾预警系统方案研究［J］．中国地质灾害与防治学报，2002，13(2): 110．
Yang Shunquan． Early warning system research of sudden geologicaldisasters prevention［J］． The Chinese Journal of GeologicalHazard and Control，2002，13(2): 110．［
32］谢剑明，刘礼领，殷坤龙，等．浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究［J］．地质科技情报，2003，22(4): 100-101．
Xie Jianming，Liu Liling，Yin kunlong，et al． Study on the thresholdvalves of rainfall of landslide hazards for early-warning and predictionin Zhejiang province［J］． Geological Science and TechnologyInformation，2003，22(4): 100-101．
［33］罗昌谟．福建省地质灾害与过程降雨量影响关系探讨［J］．福建地质，2008(4): 414-419．
Luo Changmo． On the relation between geologic hazards and routinerainfall in Fujian province［J］． Geology of Fujian，2008(4):414-419．
［34］柳源．滑坡临界暴雨强度［J］．水文地质工程地质，1998(3):43-45．
Liu Yuan． Critical precipitation of rainstorm for cavsing landslide［J］． Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology，1998(3): 43-45．
［35］罗先启，葛修润．滑坡模型试验理论及其应用［M］．北京: 中国水利水电出版社，2008: 103．
［36］ Cardinali M，Galli M，Guzzetti F，et al． Rainfall induced landslidesin December 2004 in Southwestern Umbria，Central Italy［J］． Natural Hazards and Earth System Science，2006，6: 237-260．
［37］ Lumb． Effect of rainstorm on slope stability［M］． Hong Kong: LocalProperty ＆ Printing Comporry，1962: 73-87．
［38］ Corominas J． Landslides and climate［C］/ / Proceeding 8th InternationalSymposium on landslide． Cardiff: A． A． Balkema Publishers，2000: 125-132．
［39］ Pasuto A，Silvano S． Rainfall as a triggering factor of shallow massmovement: A case study in the Dolomites，Italy［J］． EnvironmentalGeology，2000，35(2 /3): 184-189．
［40］钟荫乾．滑坡与降雨关系及其预报［J］．中国地质灾害与防治学报，1998，9(4): 81-86．
Zhong Yinqian． Landslide related to rainfall and its forecasting［J］． The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control，1998，9(4): 81-86．
［41］ Tsai T L，Yang J C． Modeling of rainfall-triggered shallow landslide［J］． Environmental Geology，2006，50(4): 525-534．
［42］ Arezoo R，Harianto R，L Eng-Choon． Effect of antecedent rainfallpatterns on rainfall-induced slop failure［J］． Geotechnical andGeoenvironmental Engineering，2011，137(5): 483-491．
［43］ Tsai Tung-Lin． The influence of rainfall pattern on shallow landslide［J］． Environmental Geology，2007，53(7): 1563-1569．
［44］ Mateja J，Marko K． Rainfall patterns for shallow landsliding in perialpineSlovenia［J/OL］． Natural Hazards，2011［2011-6-23］． http: / /www． springerlink． com/content /pm363t1428667051 /fulltext． html
［45］刘广润，晏鄂川，练操．论滑坡分类［J］．工程地质学报，2002，10(4): 339-342．
Liu Guangrun，Yan Echuan，Lian Cao． Discussion on classificationof landslides［J］． Journal of Engineering Geology，2002，10(4): 339-342．
［46］林孝松，郭跃．滑坡与降雨的耦合关系研究［J］．灾害学，2001，16(2): 87-92．
Lin Xiaosong，Guo Yue． A study on coupling relation betweenlandslide and rainfall［J］． Journal of Catastrophology，2001，16(2): 87-92．
［47］杜荣恒，刘新民，袁建模，等．长江三峡工程库区滑坡与泥石流研究［M］．成都: 四川科学与技术出版社，1991: 33-36．
［48］陈剑，杨志法，李晓．三峡库区滑坡发生概率与降水条件的关系［J］．岩石力学与工程学报，2005，24(17): 3052-3056．
Chen Jian，Yang Zhifa，Li Xiao． Relationship between landslideprobability and rainfall in Three Gorges Reservoir Area［M］． ChineseJournal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2005，24(17):3052-3056．
［49］林鸿州，于玉贞，李广信，等．降雨特性对土质边坡失稳的影响［J］．岩石力学与工程学报，2009，28(1): 198-204．
Lin Hongzhou，Yu Yuzhen，Li Guangxin，et al． Influence of rainfallcharacteristics on soil slope failure［J］． Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering，2009，28(1): 198-204．
［50］ Sugiyama T，Okada K，Muraishi H，et al． Statistical rainfall riskestimating method for a deep collapse of a cut slope［J］． Soils andFoundations，1995，35(4): 37-48．

[1]	陈洪凯，秦鑫. 危岩稳定性分析研究现状及趋势[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2018, 37(10): 49-60.
[2]	解后循1，高翔2. 电动液压助力转向技术研究现状分析[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2018, 37(02): 119-122.
[3]	陈洪凯，唐红梅，朱绣竹，何晓英，唐兰. 山区公路泥石流水毁灾害研究现状与趋势[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2014, 33(5): 85-91.
[4]	唐红梅，陈洪凯，关明芳. 边坡渗流研究现状及趋势分析[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2006, 25(1): 78-83.
[5]	陈洪凯，王蓉，唐红梅. 危岩研究现状及趋势综述[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2003, 22(3): 18-22.
[6]	肖汉忠. 降雨对不良地质现象发育的基本作用——以四川盆地及邻近地区滑坡泥石流为例[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 1996, 15(3): 126-130.