关键词: 交通运输工程, 道路网络, 抗震可靠性, 贝叶斯网络, 多属性决策, 路径选择

Abstract: The road traffic network will have a certain degree of structural damage and functional failure under the earthquake, which has an impact on the selection of transportation scheduling path after the earthquake. In order to study the seismic reliability of road network and the selection of transportation scheduling path after the earthquake, the connection probability of the road network was taken as the index to measure the seismic reliability of the road network, the Bayesian network was applied to the morphological characteristics of road network, and the Bayesian network model to quantify the seismic reliability of road network was constructed and solved. Taking post-earthquake transportation scheduling path selection as a multi-attribute decision making problem, a decision utility function model of transportation scheduling path selection was constructed by taking three attributes into consideration, such as transportation time, transportation distance and path reliability. By solving the proposed model, the post-earthquake transportation scheduling path selection scheme was determined. Taking part of the road network in Sucheng district of Suqian as an example, the seismic reliability of the road network was quantitatively analyzed under the influence of the earthquake, and the post-earthquake transportation scheduling path was selected.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, road network, seismic reliability, Bayesian network, multi-attribute decision making, path selection