中文核心期刊
CSCD来源期刊
中国科技核心期刊
RCCSE中国核心学术期刊
CSCD来源期刊
中国科技核心期刊
RCCSE中国核心学术期刊
重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (S2): 1084-1089.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2011.supp2.003
A.H-S.Ang
A.H-S.Ang
摘要： Significant uncertainties are invariably present in the design of major infrastructure systems such as long-span bridges and other critical systems． In this light，the safety and reliability of the built system cannot be ensured with certainty or complete confidence; there is some probability of non-performance or failure and，therefore，some measure of risk ( the product of the failure probability and its adverse consequence) ． For practical purposes，uncertainties may be classified into two broad types-the data-based type ( known as aleatory) and the knowledge-based type ( known as epistemic) ; the former can be assessed through observed data，whereas the latter often requires judgments for its assessment． The thrust of the paper is to present the systematic analysis of the two distinct types of uncertainty and to generate the pertinent risk-informed information with suggestions for determining conservative ( i． e． ，risk-averse) safety levels for the design of major infrastructure systems． The approach is presented for the safe design of major infrastructure systems under seismic loading，and illustrated numerically with the evaluation of a cable-stayed bridge in Korea including its minimum life-cycle cost design．
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