关键词: 交通工程；无差异阈值；出行时间预算；可靠性；随机用户均衡

Abstract: Indifference threshold is one of the important influencing factors in traffic demand forecasting. In view of the uncertainty of traveler’s path travel time and vehicle parking time, the travel mode selection model based on indifference threshold under uncertainty conditions was established, which took the travel time budget (TTB) as the selection standard of travel time for travelers. Moreover, the scenario of multiple users was also considered, and the influence of uncertainty on traveler’s choice behavior was analyzed. The research results show that when the indifference threshold is fixed, as the expected punctual arrival probability increases, more travelers will choose the way with high travel time reliability. When the indifference threshold is considered, the expected punctual arrival probability has less influence on the behavior of mode selection, and the greater the indifference threshold is, the smaller the influence is. In the case of multiple users, travelers who expect a higher probability of punctual arrival will have a larger travel time budget and are more likely to choose a more reliable way to travel.

Key words: traffic engineering; indifference threshold; travel time budget; reliability; stochastic user equilibrium