关键词: 公交IC卡信息, 系统聚类法, BUS到站时刻预测

Abstract: A new way of collecting passenger flow information comes into being since the intelligent cards are used in public transport charge systems. The data recorded by these intelligent cards can help transport service providers obtain a large amount of statistic data they need. Confirming the boarding station of bus IC card holders is studied through the existing IC card data. At first, the hierarchical clustering method is adopted to classify the source data according to the minimum time interval between two passengers using IC card to get on the bus in adjacent stations. Then, the prediction value of the bus arrival time at each stop can be obtained from the bus schedule information. On the basis, the boarding station of bus IC card holders can be confirmed by the time matching between the results from IC card data and the bus arrival time at each stop. Finally, the feasibility and practicality of the method is proved by actual examples.

Key words: information of bus IC , hierarchical clustering method , forecast of bus arrival time ;