关键词: 交通运输, 公路运量预测, 弹性系数, 灰色系数, 马尔可夫

Abstract: Owing to the great fluctuation of the elastic coefficients in highway transportation volume, the Gray-Markov forecast model is built to forecast elastic coefficients in highway transportation volume, for the grey model can reveal the development trend of forecast data and the Markov model is fit to describe the problem with tempestuous fluctuation. The reasonability of the Gray-Markov model is tested by its application to forecasting the elastic coefficients in highway transportation volume of Beijing. The example shows that the Gray-Markov forecast model is helpful to forecast the elastic coefficients in highway transportation volume and it can improve the forecast precision of highway transportation volume.

Key words: transportation , highway transportation volume forecast , elastic coefficient , grey coefficient , Markov ;