关键词: 交通工程, 小客车限购, 摇号, 竞拍, 外地牌, 基于选项采样

Abstract: Guangzhou is the only city in China which does not limit the non-local cars after the implement of vehicle purchase restriction measures. Because of this particularity, Guangzhou residents choose to lottery, auction or non-local car license plate. Based on the data of car purchase restriction and sampling questionnaires on the options, Guangzhou residents’ choice behavior of car license plate was analyzed. The nested Logit model based on residents’ choice of car license plate was established. The proposed model included the option that people obtained a car license plate in surrounding cities. Parameters of the model were estimated by weighted endogenous sample maximum likelihood(WESML) based on options. The influence of residents’ incomes, the urgency degree of demand, the cognition value of local car plate and other factors on the residents’ decision-making was quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that：the proposed model and method are superior to the traditional multinomial Logit model and the general maximum likelihood method, which can describe and predict people’s car plate choice behaviors more appropriate.

Key words: traffic engineering, car purchase restriction, lottery, auction, non-local car license plate, sampling based on options〖FGN〗