关键词: 交通工程, 随机通行能力, 韦布尔分布, 可靠性, 突变概率

Abstract: At present, the reliability analysis based on the stochastic traffic capacity is mainly achieved by searching the bottleneck of the road section, but for a long road section without a defined bottleneck, the stochastic analysis result of the capacity often has a large error.It is found that Weibull distribution as the distribution function of stochastic traffic capacity is more reliable, but its parameters may be affected by many factors.Based on the above problems, the mutation probability was introduced to explain the reliability evaluation method of expressway section composed of multiple detection positions. The proposed model could give the theoretical average capacity and mutation probability of different length sections in different time periods according to the requirements. At the same time,the quantitative relationship between parameters and influencing factors was given by studying the relevant data of the expressway in Zhejiang plain area.Finally,it was found that the risk of mutation of traffic flow in expressway section or road network could be well analyzed by examples.

Key words: traffic engineering, stochastic traffic capacity, Weibull distribution, reliability, mutation probability