泥石流危险性评价的权重赋值概率学优化方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2022.07.18

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (07): 120-125.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2022.07.18

泥石流危险性评价的权重赋值概率学优化方法

李莉1，张仕昕1，强跃1，郑州1，汪魁2

(1. 重庆三峡学院土木工程学院，重庆 404100； 2. 重庆交通大学河海学院，重庆 400074)

收稿日期:2020-11-24 修回日期:2021-03-04 发布日期:2022-07-25
作者简介:李莉（1982—），女，四川南江人，副教授，硕士，主要从事岩土工程方面的研究。E-mail：lily6636694@163.com
基金资助:
重庆市教委科技研究项目(KJQN201901221)；重庆市教委科技研究项目(HZ2021012)；重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项重点项目(cstc2019jscx-tjsbx0015)；江西省交通运输厅科技项目(2019Q0027)

Probabilistic Optimization Method for Weight Assignment of Debris Flow Risk Assessment

LI Li1, ZHANG Shixin1, QIANG Yue1, ZHENG Zhou1, WANG Kui2

(1. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Chongqing 404100, China; 2. School of River & Ocean, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China)

Received:2020-11-24 Revised:2021-03-04 Published:2022-07-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 泥石流危险性评价是典型的多准则决策问题。针对泥石流危险性评价问题中权重赋值方法上的不足，从概率学角度提出了一种权重赋值改进方法。在改进方法中，将权重视为一个有界的均匀随机变量，边界条件由等权重法、熵权法及变异系数法计算得到；在边界条件内通过蒙特卡洛模拟策略获取样本权重集，并以最小偏差为优化目标求解最终权重；采用改进方法对云贵高原乌东德地区的20条泥石流危险性进行了评价。评价结果表明：使用单一的权重赋值方法具有一定局限性，对不同类型的泥石流并不具有普适性；改进方法对各评价因子的权重赋值结果更加客观，评价中有5条泥石流危险等级高于传统的刘希林模型结果。

关键词: 地质工程；泥石流；危险性评价；蒙特卡洛模拟；权重；多准则决策

Abstract: Debris flow risk assessment is a typical multi-criteria decision-making problem. Aiming at the deficiencies of the weight assignment method in the debris flow risk assessment problem, an improved weight assignment method from the perspective of probability was proposed. In the improved method, the weight was regarded as a bounded uniform random variable, and the boundary conditions were calculated and obtained by equal weight method, entropy weight method and variation coefficient method. The sample weight set was obtained by Monte Carlo simulation strategy within the boundary conditions, and the final weight was solved with the minimum deviation as the optimization objective. At the same time, the proposed method was applied to the risk assessment of 20 debris flows in the Wudongde area of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. The assessment results show that: the use of a single weight assignment method has certain limitations and is not universal for different types of debris flows. The proposed method is more objective for the weight assignment of each evaluation factor. 5 debris flow hazard levels are higher than the results of the traditional Liu Xilin model.

Key words: geological engineering; debris flow; risk assessment; Monte Carlo simulation; weight; multi-criteria decision

中图分类号:

P694
P642.23

李莉1，张仕昕1，强跃1，郑州1，汪魁2. 泥石流危险性评价的权重赋值概率学优化方法[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 41(07): 120-125.

LI Li1, ZHANG Shixin1, QIANG Yue1, ZHENG Zhou1, WANG Kui2. Probabilistic Optimization Method for Weight Assignment of Debris Flow Risk Assessment[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2022, 41(07): 120-125.

参考文献

［1］孙莹洁，邓兵，乐琪浪.大宁河上中游地质灾害发育特征及对比研究［J］.重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版)，2019，38(1)：69-75.
SUN Yingjie, DENG Bing, LE Qilang. Development characteristics and comparison of geological hazards in the upper and middle reaches of Daning river［J］. Journal of
Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2019, 38(1): 69-75.
［2］李明威，唐川，陈明，等.汶川震区北川县泥石流流域崩滑体时空演变特征［J］.水文地质工程地质，2020，47(3)：182-190.
LI Mingwei, TANG Chuan, CHEN Ming, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of landslides in debris flow catchment in Beichuan county in the Wenchuan
earthquake zone［J］. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2020, 47(3): 182-190.
［3］彭仕雄，陈卫东.泥石流危险性三要素评估方法［J］.岩石力学与工程学报，2018，37(增刊1)：3542-3549.
PENG Shixiong, CHEN Weidong. A three-parameter method for evaluating debris flow hazards［J］. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2018, 37(Sup1):
3542-3549.
［4］ LI Li, ZHANG Shixin, LI Shaohong, et al. Debris flow risk assessment method based on combination weight of probability analysis［J］. Advances in Civil Engineering,
2021(1): 1-12.
［5］刘洪江，韩用顺，江玉红，等.云南昆明东川区泥石流危险性评价［J］.水土保持研究，2007，14(6)：241-244.
LIU Hongjiang, HAN Yongshun, JIANG Yuhong, et al. Risk assessment of debris flow in Dongchuan area, Kunming, Yunnan province［J］. Research of Soil and Water
Conservation, 2007, 14(6): 241-244.
［6］王维早，王滨，许强.基于灰色关联度理论的河北省太行山区下瓦岔泥石流灾害危险性评估研究［J］.地球与环境，2012，40(1)：121-125.
WANG Weizao, WANG Bin, XU Qiang. Study on the risk assessment of Xiawacha debris flow in the Taihang mountain area of Hebei province based on the theory of grey
correlation［J］. Earth and Environment, 2012, 40(1): 121-125.
［7］王英杰，王磊，荣起国，等.基于通径分析与可拓学的公路泥石流危险性评价［J］.吉林大学学报(工学版)，2014，44(3)：895-900.
WANG Yingjie, WANG Lei, RONG Qiguo, et al. Danger evaluation of debris flow along highway based on path analysis and extension method［J］. Journal of Jilin
University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2014, 44(3): 895-900.
［8］宋志伟.大型水电EPC项目招标阶段业主风险管理研究［D］.北京：清华大学，2017.
SONG Zhiwei. Research on Risk Management of Large Hydropower EPC Project in the Tender Stage Based on the Owner’s Perspective［D］. Beijing: Tsinghua
University, 2017.
［9］李晓婷，刘文龙.模糊综合评判法在甘肃陇南武都区石门乡泥石流危险性评价中的应用［J］.中国地质灾害与防治学报，2020，31(4)：71-76.
LI Xiaoting, LIU Wenlong. Application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to debris flow risk evaluation in Shimen township in Wudu district of Longnan city,
Gansu province［J］. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2020, 31(4): 71-76.
［10］杨志双，韩玉龙，张浩然.基于可拓理论的西南典型山区泥石流的危险性分级［J］.河南理工大学学报(自然科学版)，2013，32(1)：35-39.
YANG Zhishuang, HAN Yulong, ZHANG Haoran. Hazard classification of a typical southwest mountain debris flow based on extension theory［J］. Journal of Henan
Polytechnic University(Natural Science), 2013, 32(1): 35-39.
［11］罗健，郭宁，杨峥.安宁河流域西昌北段东岸沟谷泥石流危险度评价［J］.中国地质灾害与防治学报，2018，29(4)：40-49.
LUO Jian, GUO Ning, YANG Zheng. Risk assessment of gully debris flow at the east bank of the Xichang north section of the Anning river basin［J］. The Chinese Journal
of Geological Hazard and Control, 2018, 29(4): 40-49.
［12］刘德玉，贾贵义，李松，等.地形因素对白龙江流域甘肃段泥石流灾害的影响及权重分析［J］.水文地质工程地质，2019，46(3)：33-39.
LIU Deyu, JIA Guiyi, LI Song, et al. Impacts of topographical factors on debris flows and weight analysis at the Gansu segment of the Bailongjiang river basin［J］.
Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2019, 46(3): 33-39.
［13］李雄峰，陈鹏宇，韩文奇，等.因子分析法在泥石流危险性评价中的应用［J］.中国地质灾害与防治学报，2016，27(1)：55-61.
LI Xiongfeng, CHEN Pengyu, HAN Wenqi, et al. Application of factor analysis to debris flow risk assessment［J］. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,
2016, 27(1): 55-61.
［14］张超，田运涛，张宇飞.甘肃陇南石鸡坝乡幅地质灾害危险性评价［J］.重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版)，2019，38(7)：83-89.
ZHANG Chao, TIAN Yuntao, ZHANG Yufei. Geo-hazard risk assess-ment in Shijiba town at Longnan area in Gansu province［J］. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong
University(Natural Science), 2019, 38(7): 83-89.
［15］安玉华，王清，张晨，等.基于突变模型的泥石流危险度评价［J］.吉林大学学报(地球科学版)，2012，42(增刊1)：355-361.
AN Yuhua, WANG Qing, ZHANG Chen, et al. Risk degree evaluation of debris flows based on catastrophic theory［J］. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),
2012, 42(Sup1): 355-361.
［16］牛岑岑.泥石流危险度评价指标的提取与等级划分［D］.长春：吉林大学，2013.
NIU Cencen. Index Selection and Rating for Debris Flow Hazard Assessment［D］. Changchun: Jilin University, 2013.
［17］刘希林，张松林，唐川.沟谷泥石流危险度评价研究［J］.水土保持学报，1993，7(2)：20-25.
LIU Xilin, ZHANG Songlin, TANG Chuan. Evaluation of the risk degree of debris flow in ravine［J］. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 1993, 7(2): 20-25.

泥石流危险性评价的权重赋值概率学优化方法

Probabilistic Optimization Method for Weight Assignment of Debris Flow Risk Assessment

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 0

编辑推荐

Metrics