重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2007, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 122-124.
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黄显贵
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HUANG Xian-gui
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摘要： 分析风险预测准确程度进行评价的意义，提出了将风险可预测性作为风险预测准确程度的评价指标，并以效 应理论为基础构造风险可预测性效用函数，实现了风险预测结果的评价，验证了风险预测的准确性和可靠性．
关键词: 成本风险, 可预测性, 效用函数, 计算分析
Abstract: The meaning of evaluating the accurate degree of risk estimation is analyzed．The author puts forward that the risk predictability should be regarded as an index to measure the degree of accuracy of predicting risk and the efect theories should taken as the foundation to construct the efect function of risk．Th e predictive result is evaluated too．which verifies the accuracy and the credibility of the risk estimate．
Key words: cost risk, predictability, eficacy function, computation and analysis
中图分类号:
U415.1
黄显贵. 效用函数在工程成本风险预测中的构建[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2007, 26(5): 122-124.
HUANG Xian-gui. Construction of Efi cacy Function in Engineering Cost Risk Estimation[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2007, 26(5): 122-124.
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