关键词: 交通运输工程, 综合安全评估, 船舶系统, 证据理论, 前景理论

Abstract: Traditional safety assessment method has disadvantages, such as much uncertain information and incomplete information collection. A kind of method based on evidence theory and prospect theory was proposed to assess the safety of the ship. Firstly, the theory of evidence was used to show the safety assessment of each system or parts, which could well demonstrate the uncertainty and incompleteness of information. Then, the widely-used prospect theory was used to assess the whole ship’s safety system. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively assess the system’s safety of the ship.

Key words: transportation engineering, formal safety assessment(FSA), shipping system, evidence theory, prospect theory