中文核心期刊
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重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 156-161.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2016.01.30

• 交通运输工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Logistic模型的城市交通系统演化研究

刘新民1，孙 峥2，孙秋霞3   

  1. 1. 山东科技大学 经济管理学院，山东 青岛，266590； 2. 山东科技大学 电气与自动化工程学院，山东 青岛，266590； 3. 山东科技大学 数学与系统科学学院，山东 青岛，266590
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-11 修回日期:2014-11-25 出版日期:2016-02-20 发布日期:2016-04-21
  • 作者简介:刘新民(1965—)，男，山东莒南人，教授，博士生导师，主要从事系统决策与组织治理方面的研究。E-mail：liu-xinmin@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    中国博士后科学基金资助项目（2013M531634）；山东省科技发展计划项目（2013GSF12203）；山东省青少年教育科学规划课题大学生学术课题（13CZR009）；山东科技大学研究生科技创新基金项目（YC130217）

Urban Traffic System Evolution Based on Logistic Model

LIU Xinmin1, SUN Zheng2, SUN Qiuxia3   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, Shandong,P.R.China; 2. College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, Shandong,P.R.China; 3. College of Mathematics and Systems Science, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, Shandong,P.R.China
  • Received:2014-06-11 Revised:2014-11-25 Online:2016-02-20 Published:2016-04-21

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摘要： 城市交通系统是城市大系统中的子系统，它具有生物学中由低级到高级演化的特征，并与其他子系统如经济、资源、环境等因素以及政府调控之间相互作用下最终形成比较稳定的有序结构。通过对交通系统演化机理的分析，构建交通系统演化过程的Logistic模型，通过仿真模拟，研究经济、资源、环境、政府等因素对交通系统演化的影响。以山东半岛城市群中心城市——青岛市交通系统的演化为例，验证模型的可行性，并计算出青岛交通系统演化的logistic方程，进而预测青岛市直至2050年的交通系统演化曲线，为青岛市交通系统建设进一步完善提供理论依据。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 交通系统, 演化模型, Logistic方程, 仿真

Abstract: As a subsystem of city system, the urban traffic system has a characteristic in biology with an evolution process from low level to high, and can form a relatively stable and ordered structure when it interacts with other subsystems such as economy, resources, environment and government regulation. The mechanism of traffic system evolution was analyzed, and a Logistic model of traffic system evolution process was established. The factors that can influence the traffic system evolution process such as economy, resources, environment and government were studied by simulation. The feasibility of the proposed model was proved by an empirical analysis on Qingdao, which was a center city of Shandong peninsula urban cluster. Lastly, Logistic equation of Qingdao traffic system evolution was calculated and the evolution curve of Qingdao traffic system was also forecasted up to 2050, which provided the theoretical basis for the further improvement of Qingdao traffic system.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, traffic system, evolution model, Logistic equation, simulation

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