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重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 129-133.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2016.03.27

• 交通运输工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市群内城际短途出行方式选择行为建模

向红艳，任小聪，陈坚   

  1. （重庆交通大学 交通运输学院，重庆 400074）
  • 收稿日期:2015-02-10 修回日期:2015-07-09 出版日期:2016-06-20 发布日期:2016-06-20
  • 作者简介:第一作者：向红艳(1980—)，女，湖北恩施人，副教授，博士，主要从事交通运输规划与管理方面的研究。E-mail:xiang-@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（51308569）

Modeling on Choice Behavior of Short-Distance Intercity Travel Mode

XIANG Hongyan, REN Xiaocong, CHEN Jian   

  1. (School of Traffic & Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, P.R.China)
  • Received:2015-02-10 Revised:2015-07-09 Online:2016-06-20 Published:2016-06-20
  • Contact: 任小聪（1989—），女，河南洛阳人，硕士，主要从事交通运输规划与管理方面的研究。E-mail:1097623144@qq.com。

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摘要： 将出行者的城际间短途出行分为两个阶段：市内出行阶段和城际出行阶段，并结合交通网络首先对城际出行全过程进行了分析。根据效用最大化理论对居民城际出行两阶段出行方式选择行为建立巢式Logit模型，水平1为市内出行方式选择阶段，水平2为城际出行方式选择行为阶段。最后根据RP调查数据运用TransCAD对所建模型进行标定与检验。通过对模型的标定结果进行分析可得：反映水平1对水平2影响作用大小的包容系数λ的最终标定值为0.654，且通过了T检验，这表明市内出行阶段所产生的效用对城际出行阶段的方式选择行为具有显著影响；考虑市内出行时所建的NL模型较不考虑市内出行时所用的ML模型的优度比提高了0.07，说明NL模型的精度更高。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 城际短途出行, 交通方式, 出行行为, NL模型

Abstract: The residents’ intercity travels were divided into two phases: travel within city and travel between cities. Combined with transport network, the whole process of intercity travel was firstly analyzed, and then based on the theory of utility maximization, Nested Logit model for two phases of choice behavior of intercity travel was established: level 1 was for choice of travel within city mode; level 2 was choice of for travel between cities mode. Finally, the above model was calibrated and tested by TransCAD according to SP and RP survey data. It is concluded by analyzing the model calibration results that: the value of coefficient λ is 0.654, which indicates the influence of level 1 on level 2. And λ has passed the T-test, which shows the utility of travelling within city stage has a significant impact on travelers’ choice behavior of inter-city travel mode. Compared with ML model which doesn’t consider the travel within city, the superior degree ratio of NL model with the consideration of the travel within city has raised 0.07, which means NL model has higher accuracy.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, intercity short-distance travel, travel mode, travel behavior, Nested Logit (NL) mode

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