关键词: 交通运输工程, 客运量预测, 弹性系数, 转移客运量, 多元Logit模型, 诱增客运量

Abstract: In order to solve the problem of passenger flow instability in the early stage of railway passenger dedicated line, taking full account of the potential demand under transport restrictions, a multivariate Logit model was constructed to forecast the traffic flow in the channel based on the economy and transport impedance of transportation modes. Meanwhile, the induced passenger volume was forecasted through the comparison of passenger service promotion rate before and after the operation of passenger dedicated line. Then taking the newly built Chengdu-Mianyang-Leshan passenger dedicated line as an example, the total passenger traffic volume of the channel in 2017 and 2020 was obtained by forecasting the trend passenger volume, the transfer passenger volume and the induced passenger volume respectively at initial operation stage. The above study provides a new idea for forecasting the system of railway passenger dedicated line.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, passenger volume prediction, elastic coefficient, the transfer passenger volume, multinomial Logit model, the induced passenger volume