关键词: 交通运输工程；安全风险；跟驰行为；评价指标；雨天环境；仿真分析

Abstract: The safety hazards of driving in rainy environments are prominent. The safety risks of rear-end collisions caused by car-following in rainy enviorment was analyzed. First of all, considering two conditions such as normal acceleration and deceleration of vehicles and sudden braking in a rainy environment, the safety simulation scenarios were designed, and a car-following model calibrated by basing on real driving data was also used to carry out simulation test on the safety risk of car-following behavior. Secondly, according to the simulation data, three different types of safety evaluation indicators such as ITC, DRAC and DSS, were applied to evaluate the safety risk for different rainfall and car-following scenarios. Finally, the statistical testing was used to analyze the applicability of the three safety evaluation indicators such as ITC, DRAC and DSS. The research results show that in the two car-following scenarios, as the rainfall increases, the risk of collisions in car-following behavior increases and and the time of potential collision risk also increases. Taking the speed of 20 m/s and DSS as an example, under different weather conditions in normal acceleration and deceleration scenarios, the DSS indicates the possibility time of collision risk in 0 seconds for clear weather, 90.9 seconds for light rain and 100 seconds for heavy rain. Under different weather conditions in the emergency braking scenario, the DSS indicates the possibility time of collision risk in 7.0 seconds for clear weather, 14.3 seconds for light rain and 20.7 seconds for heavy rain. For different rainfall and car-following scenarios, the applicability of DSS evaluation index is better than that of ITC evaluation index and DRAC evaluation index.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering; safety risk; car-following behavior; evaluation indicator; rainy days; simulation analysis