Abstract: The forecasting model of exponential smoothing is avalid method in forecasting and decision-making.Firstly,the exponential smoothing method is presented in the paper. Secondly, in light of the real landslide conditions, a model is established for the special displacement of some observation points and the prediction which is based on this model came out. The forecast results show that the errors between the forecast values and the fact values error little. It shows that the model may be well applied on the fo recast of the landslide deformation. the method can be used in real engineering. And the decision-making can depend on the results we get from the model.

Key words: exponential smoothing, landslide, forecast

摘要： 指数平滑技术是进行预测决策的有效方法,文章首先对指数平滑模型作了简单的介绍,然后根据某滑坡的实际情况,对部分监测点位移进行了建模和预测,预测结果表明,预测值与实际观测值之间的误差很小,说明此模型可很好地应用于滑坡位移预测,可为施工决策提供可靠的依据.

关键词: 指数平滑法, 滑坡, 预测