Abstract: To investigate the influences of uncertainties on the in-plane creep stable bearing capacity of CFST arches，the time-dependent limit state function was established． The time discretized-integrated approach and the one-time reliability method were combined，therefore，the curve of the in-plane stability reliability indices changed with the time and corresponding sensitivity indices of CFST arches were obtained． The results show that: with the deterioration of in-plane stable bearing capacity caused by concrete creep，the reliability of CFST arches decreases significantly; the outer diameter of the steel tubular has the most important influences on reliability index and it is followed by the elastic modulus of steel，the elastic modulus of concrete，the thickness of steel tubular and the creep coefficient of concrete; the effects of concrete creep on in-plane stability of CFST arches are significant，which should be considered in design．

Key words: concrete-filled steel tubular arch ( CFST arch) , time-dependent reliability, time discretized-integrated approach; one-time reliability method, in-plane stability, concrete creep

摘要： 为研究不确定性对钢管混凝土拱面内徐变稳定承载力的影响，建立了其时变的极限状态函数，并将时间离散- 综合法和一次可靠度法相结合，得到了钢管混凝土拱面内稳定可靠指标随时间的变化曲线，以及相应的灵敏度指 标。计算结果表明:混凝土徐变引起的钢管混凝土拱面内稳定承载力的退化使得其可靠性显著降低;不同随机变量 的灵敏度差异明显，其中钢管外径的影响最大，然后依次是钢的弹性模量、混凝土的弹性模量、钢管壁厚以及混凝土 徐变系数;徐变对钢管混凝土拱面内稳定的影响较大，设计时应予以考虑。

关键词: 钢管混凝土拱, 时变可靠度, 时间离散-综合法, 一次可靠度法, 面内稳定, 混凝土徐变