Abstract: A composite prediction method is put forward based on gray method and Three-exponential Smoothing method. Container terminal input/output system is a gray system, so the Gray GM (1,1) method is chosen to forecast the throughput of Ningbo port. Three-exponential Smoothing method is used to forecast the throughput of Ningbo port for the curve of throughput is keeping rising during these years. Based on the two methods, composite prediction technology is used to forecast the container throughput of Ningbo port.

Key words: Ningbo port, GM (1,1), Three-exponential Smoothing, composite prediction

摘要： 提出了在灰色模型GM(1,1)和三次指数平滑法基础上的组合预测方法。集装箱吞吐体系是一个灰色系统,因此可以通过灰色系统进行建模并预测其吞吐量,通过对宁波港历年集装箱吞吐量的观察,发现其吞吐量呈持续的曲线增长趋势,因此考虑采用三次指数平滑法进行预测,在灰色GM(1,1)和三次指数平滑法的基础上采用了加权组合预测的方法,对宁波港今后几年的集装箱吞吐量进行了预测.

关键词: 宁波港, GM(1, 1), 三次指数平滑, 组合预测