Abstract: To address the insufficient research on construction diversion risks of collaborative construction in multi-region serial projects, a Copula-Monte-Carlo-Mike multivariate coupling construction diversion risk analysis model was developed by integrating the Copula-Monte-Carlo flood analysis method and the Mike hydrodynamic simulation method. Taking the reach from the Qishi Hub to the Qingnian Hub in the Pinglu Canal as a case study, the characteristics of flood encounters between tributaries and the mainstream along the route were analyzed. The risk rates for different areas under various roughness conditions during the flood season were calculated, the variation patterns of the construction diversion risk rate under multi-region collaborative construction were discussed, and the formation mechanism of construction diversion risk was revealed. The research results indicate that the proposed model can simulate flood encounter scenarios involving multiple tributaries, effectively quantifying the diversion risks of the canal waterway under long-reach, multi-region collaborative construction conditions. The diversion risk exhibits significant spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics. Temporally, the risk is highly concentrated in the main flood season from June to August. Spatially, the inflow of tributaries increases the risk downstream. The risk rate shows a nonlinear growth trend of “acceleration-slowdown” with flow rate, reflecting the transition of river channel discharge capacity from normal to saturation. An increase in roughness significantly amplifies the risk at high flow rates. However, variations in bottom elevation prevent the spatial distribution of risk from evolving synchronously with the increasing flow discharge. The formation of diversion risk in the multi-region collaborative construction of the canal is a combined result of flow discharge, roughness, and bottom elevation. The non-linear driving effect of flow dominates the formation of risk. Roughness increases the equivalent flow risk level through flow accumulation effects, while bottom elevation variations regulate local risks by reshaping the flow regime.

Key words: waterway engineering; canal waterways; multi-regional collaborative construction; multivariate coupling model; diversion risk; formation mechanism

摘要： 针对多区域串联工程协同施工导流风险研究尚不充分的问题，基于Copula-Monte-Carlo洪水分析方法和Mike水动力模拟方法，构建了Copula-Monte-Carlo-Mike多元耦合施工导流风险分析模型；以平陆运河企石枢纽工程至青年枢纽工程的河段为例，分析了沿程各支流与干流洪水的遭遇特征，计算了汛期各区域不同糙率下的风险率，探讨了多区域协同施工导流风险率的变化规律，揭示了施工导流风险形成的机理。研究结果表明：该模型可模拟多支流洪水遭遇状况，有效地量化了长河段多区域协同施工条件下的运河航道导流风险。导流风险呈现显著的时空分异特征，时间上风险高度集中于6—8月主汛期，空间上支流汇入使得下游风险趋增；风险率随流量呈“加速-趋缓”的非线性增长，反映了河道过流能力从正常到饱和的转变；糙率增大对高流量风险具有显著放大作用，而底部高程变化导致风险空间分布并未随流量的递增而同步演变。运河多区域协同施工导流风险的形成是流量、糙率与底部高程共同作用的结果：流量非线性驱动主导风险形成，糙率通过水流累积效应增大等效流量风险水平，底部高程变化则通过重塑水流形态调节局部风险。

关键词: 航道工程；运河航道；多区域协同施工；多元耦合模型；导流风险；形成机理