城市道路交通事故严重程度影晌因素分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2014.01.25

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 111-114.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2014.01.25

城市道路交通事故严重程度影晌因素分析

马柱，陈雨人，张兰芳

同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海200092

收稿日期:2012-10-19 修回日期:2013-02-27 出版日期:2014-02-15 发布日期:2015-01-22
作者简介:马柱(1988一)，男，安徽无为人，硕士研究生，主要从事交通安全方面的研究。E-mail: mz_pillar@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目( 51078270) ;新疆乌鲁木齐市科学技术局项目(H I0 1326001 )

Influence Factors of Accident Severity for Urban Road

Ma Zhu , Chen Yuren， Zhang Lanfang

Key Laboratory of Road & Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education , Tongji University, Shanghai 201804 , China

Received:2012-10-19 Revised:2013-02-27 Online:2014-02-15 Published:2015-01-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据乌鲁木齐市5 年的交通事故统计资料，将交通事故严重程度分为严重事故和非严重事故两类。以交通事故严重程度为因变量，从影响因素中初步选取13 个候选自变量，分析候选自变量与因变量之间的相关性，获得最具相关性的因素组合。采用二项Logistic 模型建立交通事故严重程度分析模型，对模型参数进行了估计，并对模型的可靠性进行了分析。相关研究可以为降低交通事故严重程度提供依据。

关键词: 交通波, TransModeler , 动态分配, 动态路阻函数, 平均行程时间

Abstract: According to the statistical data of Urumqi in recent 5 years , there were two categories for accident severity , including serious accidents and non-serious accidents. The accident severity was selected as the dependent variable and thirteen factors were selected as the candidate independent variables. The significant correlation between dependent variable and independent variables was analyzed by the combined stepwise method to obtain the most correlated factor group. The analysis model of accident severity was established based on Logistic model. And the model parameters were evaluated to obtain the most correlated factors that exerted significant influence on urban road accident severity. Then the model reliability was analyzed. It provides the basis for reducing the severity of traffic accidents

Key words: traffic safety, Logistic model, traffic accident severity

中图分类号:

U491

马柱，陈雨人，张兰芳. 城市道路交通事故严重程度影晌因素分析[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2014, 33(1): 111-114.

Ma Zhu , Chen Yuren， Zhang Lanfang. Influence Factors of Accident Severity for Urban Road[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2014, 33(1): 111-114.

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城市道路交通事故严重程度影晌因素分析

Influence Factors of Accident Severity for Urban Road

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