关键词: 高速公路, 交通流预测, Hurst指数, 分形维数, 相空间重构, 移动平均最近邻域法

Abstract: By calculating the Hurst Index of the short time traffic flow in variant time scales for freeway，a fractal dimension was put forward.It showed that the interval time of traffic flow was shorter，the fractal dimension was bigger，and the structure was more complex.So it is m0re difficult to forecast.We present a new forecasting method—moving average nearest neighborhood forecasting method，which is based on the phase space reconstruction and combining with the moving average forecasting and the nearest neighborhood method.The efficiency of the method Was proved by theory and actual traffic flow.

Key words: freeway, forecasting of traffic flow, Hurst index, fractal dimension, phase space reconstruction, moving average nearest neighborhood forecasting method