中文核心期刊
CSCD来源期刊
中国科技核心期刊
RCCSE中国核心学术期刊

重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2008, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 302-304,332.

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基于灰色模型和指数平滑法的集装箱吞吐量预测

施泽军, 李凯   

  1. 重庆交通大学 河海学院, 重庆 400074
  • 收稿日期:2007-01-29 修回日期:2007-03-06 出版日期:2008-04-20 发布日期:2016-11-14
  • 作者简介:施泽军(1982-),男,浙江绍兴人,硕士研究生,研究方向:港口管理、物流管理。E-mail:lhodvqe@hotmail.com;电话:13752956737。

Container Throughput Forecasting Based on Gray Method and Exponential Smoothing Method

SHI Ze-jun, LI Kai   

  1. School of River & Ocean Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China
  • Received:2007-01-29 Revised:2007-03-06 Online:2008-04-20 Published:2016-11-14

摘要: 提出了在灰色模型GM(1,1)和三次指数平滑法基础上的组合预测方法。集装箱吞吐体系是一个灰色系统,因此可以通过灰色系统进行建模并预测其吞吐量,通过对宁波港历年集装箱吞吐量的观察,发现其吞吐量呈持续的曲线增长趋势,因此考虑采用三次指数平滑法进行预测,在灰色GM(1,1)和三次指数平滑法的基础上采用了加权组合预测的方法,对宁波港今后几年的集装箱吞吐量进行了预测.

关键词: 宁波港, GM(1, 1), 三次指数平滑, 组合预测

Abstract: A composite prediction method is put forward based on gray method and Three-exponential Smoothing method. Container terminal input/output system is a gray system, so the Gray GM (1,1) method is chosen to forecast the throughput of Ningbo port. Three-exponential Smoothing method is used to forecast the throughput of Ningbo port for the curve of throughput is keeping rising during these years. Based on the two methods, composite prediction technology is used to forecast the container throughput of Ningbo port.

Key words: Ningbo port, GM (1,1), Three-exponential Smoothing, composite prediction

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