关键词: 交通运输, 公路旅客运输, 弹性系数, 因子分析, 弹性因子, 经济因子

Abstract: In order to analyze the effect so many factors have on highway passenger demand and reveal the relationships between them roundly and effectively, the proposal that highway passenger factors are divided into economy factors and elastic factors and the key factor analysis method about elastic coefficients of highway passenger transportation is given. Using key factor analysis method, the highway passenger indexes from 1980 to 2005 of Jiangxi province are computed and the elastic coefficients of highway passenger transportation are got by analyzing the relationship between economy factors and elastic factors. The result shows that key factor analysis method is useful to analyze the highway passenger demand because it can reduce the amount of variables for models and cannot result in the loss of much information, and then it shows that all ＋the elastic coefficients change a little, which can reflect the relationship between highway passenger transportation and social economy. And the development trend of elastic coefficients got from geometric average method changes more gently and the fluctuation range is smaller than that got from arithmetical average method.

Key words: transportation , highway passenger transportation , elastic coefficients , key factor analysis , elastic factor , economy factor ;