Influencing Factors of High-Speed Train Occupancy Rate Based on Stepwise Logistics Regression Model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2023.01.18

Abstract

Abstract: It is of great significance to analyze the influencing factors of the occupancy rate of high-speed trains for optimizing the train operation plan and improving the economic benefits of railway companies. Taking the data of occupancy rate of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in 2015 as an example, a framework to analyze the factors affecting occupancy rate of high-speed trains based on the stepwise Logistics regression was constructed. And the stepwise regression strategy was used to screen out the factors that had a significant impact on the train occupancy rate. Then, Logistics regression model was applied to analyze the quantitative relationship between train occupancy rate and its influencing factors. Finally, Wald statistics and HL indicators were respectively used to test the significance of the regression coefficients and the goodness of fit of the proposed model. The research results show that whether the train crosses the line or not, the train type, the train departure time, the train arrival time, and the fare are the main factors that affect the train occupancy rate of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, train occupancy rate, influencing factors, stepwise regression, Logistics regression

摘要： 分析高铁列车上座率的影响因素，对于优化列车运行方案及提高铁路公司经济效益均具有重要意义。以京沪高铁2015年11月份的上座率数据为例，构建了基于逐步Logistics回归的高铁列车上座率影响因素分析框架；运用逐步回归策略筛选出对列车上座率有显著影响的因素；再应用Logistic回归模型分析了列车上座率与其影响因素之间的定量关系；最后分别采用Wald统计量和HL指标检验回归系数的显著性和模型的拟合优度。研究结果表明：列车跨线与否、列车类型、列车始发时间、列车终到时间和票价是影响影响京沪高铁列车上座率的主要因素。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 列车上座率, 影响因素, 逐步回归, Logistics回归

CLC Number:

U292.35

XU Chang'an, YU Juan. Influencing Factors of High-Speed Train Occupancy Rate Based on Stepwise Logistics Regression Model[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2023, 42(1): 128-136.

徐长安, 余娟. 基于逐步Logistics回归的高铁列车上座率影响因素分析[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 42(1): 128-136.

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