Abstract: The effect of guidance diversion implementation during the period of expressway reconstruction and expansion has uncertainty, which affects the efficiency of traffic organization. To facilitate a deeper analysis of the interactive influences and game relationships among drivers’ decision-making under the conditions of guidance diversion during expressway reconstruction and expansion, a payment matrix was constructed, which covered fuel consumption costs, time value costs, toll fees and variable cost payments, and a corresponding replication dynamics equation was established. Subsequently, numerical simulations were conducted for typical working conditions of the affected roads. The research indicates that the guidance diversion can’t affect all drivers. In cases where the bypass coefficients are high, drivers with lower time values are more likely to accept guidance diversion. The evolutionary game theory model can effectively predict the outcomes of guidance diversion in expressway expansion and reconstruction.

Key words: highway engineering; expressway expansion and reconstruction; guidance diversion; evolutionary game

摘要： 高速公路改扩建期间诱导分流实施效果存在不确定性，影响交通组织效率。为深入分析高速公路改扩建诱导分流条件下，驾驶员决策的交互影响和博弈关系，构建涵盖油耗成本、时间价值成本、过路费以及可变成本支付的支付矩阵，并建立相应的复制动态方程，针对受流道路的典型工况进行数值模拟。研究表明：诱导分流无法对全部驾驶员产生影响；绕行系数较高的情况下，低时间价值驾驶员更容易接受诱导；演化博弈理论模型可有效预测高速公路改扩建的诱导分流效果。

关键词: 公路工程；高速公路改扩建；诱导分流；演化博弈