Abstract: According to the characteristies of the concrete pave ment performance,this paper gives the predic-tion medels of three indicators of the concrete pavement performance:Pavement Condition Index, Pave-ment Crack Index,Pavement Roughness,the prediction model is gotten by the regression analysis method,and the state transition probability model under different traffic and structure condition isshwon in this paper.

Key words: concrete pavement ’performance prediction, state transition probability model

摘要： 根据水泥砼路面使用性能的具体特点，本文针对水泥砼路面使用性能的三个主要指标：路面状况指数ＰＣＩ，被损率ＰＳＮ和实测平整度方差ＰＺＤ，采用回归分析的方法，建立了在不同交通和结构条件下使用性能随年份变化的预测模型。

关键词: 水泥砼路面, 使用性能预测, 状态转移概率模型