Abstract: The problem of reservoir life is of fuzzy characteristics,it can be studied and predicted throughfuzzy analysis,In this paper,the reservoir life is considered as the object of analysis,the parametersof analysis are as follows:Watershed area,first storage capacity,annual average sediment deposit vol-ume annual average drainage erosion thickness. According to the data of ten reservoirs in Taiwan,fuzzy mathematical model is found.On the basis of this,the reservoir life of two reservoirs is predict-ed. The results are satisfactory.

Key words: reservoir life, fuzzy mathematics, subordinate function

摘要： 水库寿命问题具有模糊性质，可通过模糊分析来进行研究与预测。本文以水库寿命为分析对象，水库汇水流域面积、初始库容、年平均泥沙淤积量和年平均流域侵蚀层厚为因子，以台湾１０座水库的实测资料为样本，建立了水库寿命预报的模糊数学模式。据此，对拟预测的２座水库的寿命进行了预报，结果较好。

关键词: 水库寿命, 模糊数学, 隶属函数