Abstract: The prediction of the road capacity of tourist transport is the basis for the development and management of road transportation and tourism , which indicates the developmental trend of regional tourism.Closely related to the characteristics of road tourist transport , this paper comes up with a regular predictive model , Elasticity Coefficient Method , about regional total volume of tourist transport .At the same time , “Scenic Capacity-Attraction Model” and “Capacity-Vehicle Mode Model” lay a theoretical basis for the configuration of vehicle mode for tour transportation and reasonable organization for transport

Key words: road , tour transportation , capacity-attraction model , capacity-vehicle mode model

摘要： 公路旅游客运量的预测是公路旅游运输客运发展和管理的基础，也是地区未来旅游发展趋势的预测。笔者 结合公路旅游客运的特点，提出了地区旅游客运总量的“弹性系数法”的常规预测模型;公路旅游客运量的“景 点容量—吸引力模型”和“容量—车型模型”，为旅游运输车型配置和合理的组织运输提供理论基础。

关键词: 公路, 旅游运输, 容量-吸引力模型, 容量-车型模型